What’s Up With Jobs Numbers?
976 sats \ 15 comments \ @kr 4 Jun 2023 bitcoin
I saw this chart today and had to stop for a moment to appreciate how absurd these jobs predictions are…
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fxnji-zWAAIUEzo?format=png&name=small
Non-Farm payrolls have “surpassed expectations” 14 times in a row. What are the odds of that?
Many of us love to talk about how CPI is a flawed metric, but to me this one is 10x less believable.
It also makes me wonder, where are all these jobs coming from? A few ideas come to mind, but I haven’t done enough research to know for sure…
  • people who stopped working during the pandemic could be coming back to work
  • single-income homes struggling to keep up with inflation could be getting second jobs
  • perhaps by “surpassing expectations” we’re actually proving how desperate families are getting to maintain their lifestyles
Not entirely sure what to make of these numbers, but I’m sure some of the smart econ folks on here have thoughts…
write
preview
related posts
331 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 4 Jun 2023
I don't consider myself a smart econ guy at all, but I have a friend who used to work at the BLS(Bureau of Labor Statistics). These are not hard numbers. They are based on limited surveys, and then the numbers are extrapolated. They are also subjected to often arbitrary "seasonal adjustments. " The term of art he used, I believe, was "bullshit."
reply
66 sats \ 2 replies \ @sb 4 Jun 2023
Hasn't the BLS also been revising down their recent wage data? Seems like they put out arbitrary numbers, gauge market reaction and then correct the numbers in the months ahead by the time the market has moved on
reply
239 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 4 Jun 2023
The revisions are ridiculous. Good jobs numbers give Powell political cover to raise rates, which says to me the fed is really frightened of inflation. Once the wheels come off and the US can no longer afford its debt service, ceiling or no ceiling, the jobs numbers will get ugly. Then they will slash rates to "save the economy. "
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 4 Jun 2023
yeah good point, the idea that these metrics are being skewed to enable more rate hikes seems plausible to me
reply
204 sats \ 2 replies \ @pillar 4 Jun 2023
https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-the-only-statistics-you-can-trust-are-those-you-falsified-yourself-winston-churchill-66-61-75.jpg
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nkmg1c_ventures 4 Jun 2023
Lmao extra points if he never actually said this
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kilianbuhn 4 Jun 2023
ct 😂😂
reply
233 sats \ 0 replies \ @OriginalSize 4 Jun 2023
Listen to the rip with Balaji. This stuff is total fiction.
reply
142 sats \ 0 replies \ @Chep 4 Jun 2023
If I had to guess I bet it would be the two job thing but to me it seems like these numbers are cooked to say the least.
reply
178 sats \ 0 replies \ @tomlaies 4 Jun 2023
I think it's part time jobs and inflation.
Employers want to employ more part time because it's less of a risk. Lower class people need 2 part time jobs to survive in a world with higher prices.
A lot of people having 2 jobs = more payrolls = a graphic like this
reply
95 sats \ 0 replies \ @chuula_last 4 Jun 2023 freebie
Good idea salary is not good enough to pay all the expectations
reply
119 sats \ 1 reply \ @kepford 4 Jun 2023
I know this is an oversimplification but I don't trust anything the government tells me. If you know a dude that lies to you even 10% of the time do you trust him? Nope. Same logic applies to institutions.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hopeful_Sat 4 Jun 2023
Agree that it's better to not trust these numbers if you don't have a verifiable breakdown of how they are achieved. Not necessarily lies, just skewed information, which isn't useful at all
reply
19 sats \ 0 replies \ @nout 5 Jun 2023
My guess is that this is just classic example of government lying.
They first fake numbers, release them widely and push them through through media and then couple months later they issue retraction as quietly as possible.
For example see the updated numbers (check the tables on how massively have the numbers been "revised"): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hopeful_Sat 4 Jun 2023
Apart from the data probably being completely skewed, my money would be on people getting second jobs to make ends meet
This is happening in countries across the world as well. All of the sudden I know people where only one parent used to work and now they both have to work. Also know people that used to have a business and only one parent worked. Now the business went under and they both have to work. Also know people that had to find a job after actually retiring as the annuities weren't cutting it
Stressing times, especially for the older folks
reply