I think that industries which rely on coordinating and distributing information will eventually be replaced by cheaper, decentralized protocols. The less tethered their services are to producing physical goods, the less likely they will survive in an increasingly digital landscape.
Some examples:
  • Social media: Likely to be replaced by Nostr or something similar.
  • Transport: Companies like Uber do not supply the cars or the drivers, only the technology to organize them. Perhaps a driver reputation and coordination system will emerge that cuts out the middleman. Especially when self-driving cars start dominating the roads.
  • Online marketplaces: Platforms like eBay do not provide the products, only the platform for buyers and sellers to coordinate trades. A multi-billion dollar company like eBay does not need to exist in a Nostr world.
  • Education: All the information you can find at a university is already available online. While people also go for the experience, connections and facilities (like labs if you want to work in STEM), there is a LOT of fat that can be cut from academia. Like, 90% fat.
  • Law and accounting firms: These survive based on managing data and understanding esoteric laws. They produce no physical goods. I suspect there won't be many human lawyers and accountants in a few decades.
  • Governments: These survive based on controlling money and information, neither of which seems feasible in a Bitcoin + AI world. I don't expect them to disappear, but most likely will be declawed. That also goes for government-adjacent industries like military and social healthcare systems.
agree 100% with all this. Interesting take on transport, hadn't given that much thought
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