Bitcoin, AI, and the general wave of technological advancement are pushing us right into the next industrial revolution/enlightenment.
As all this new tech arrives, what industries/structures/systems will be replaced or done anyway with entirely?
As a Bitcoiner, I'd say accounts.
Accounts in general.
Email/password logins for payments, bank accounts, investment accounts, etc... We'll outgrow this idea of needing third-party providers for financial operations.
On a Bitcoin standard, settlement lies in the message itself. Why would I need a bank?
Don't argue "people will always want others to manage their money for them." That's fiat cope imo.
Netflix made movies easy and accessible to everyone. Blockbuster couldn't keep up. Bitcoin will do the same for money. Banks simply won't be able to keep up.
The UX will become so seamless, people will stop wanting the hassle of a bank.
I think that industries which rely on coordinating and distributing information will eventually be replaced by cheaper, decentralized protocols. The less tethered their services are to producing physical goods, the less likely they will survive in an increasingly digital landscape.
Some examples:
  • Social media: Likely to be replaced by Nostr or something similar.
  • Transport: Companies like Uber do not supply the cars or the drivers, only the technology to organize them. Perhaps a driver reputation and coordination system will emerge that cuts out the middleman. Especially when self-driving cars start dominating the roads.
  • Online marketplaces: Platforms like eBay do not provide the products, only the platform for buyers and sellers to coordinate trades. A multi-billion dollar company like eBay does not need to exist in a Nostr world.
  • Education: All the information you can find at a university is already available online. While people also go for the experience, connections and facilities (like labs if you want to work in STEM), there is a LOT of fat that can be cut from academia. Like, 90% fat.
  • Law and accounting firms: These survive based on managing data and understanding esoteric laws. They produce no physical goods. I suspect there won't be many human lawyers and accountants in a few decades.
  • Governments: These survive based on controlling money and information, neither of which seems feasible in a Bitcoin + AI world. I don't expect them to disappear, but most likely will be declawed. That also goes for government-adjacent industries like military and social healthcare systems.
agree 100% with all this. Interesting take on transport, hadn't given that much thought
It sounds almost cliché, but the Westphalian nation-state model we've been under since 1648 is obsolete now. Networks of individuals themselves, regardless of their geographic location, can attain the sovereignty that heretofore has been limited to nation-states. Like tribes in cyberspace, where each individual person is a node in the network.
That doesn't mean political models like "The United States" or "France" will disappear. But I think we'll soon recognize the distinction between government and governance, between nation and nation-state, and so on.
It's rather difficult to predict the full ramifications of this, for the same reason someone in 1023 didn't yet realize what "The Middle Ages" would become.
20% of high school students are illiterate and the trend seems to be increasing so i think I text based stuff is going out.
We don't know what will happen in 20 years, why bother trying to predict how the world will work 120 years in the future? This assuming we are still around.
you could just keep scrolling my guy
you're probably fun at parties
What's a party?
Every 10 years there is a new disruptive technology. Can we predict what they are? Probably not, but its fun to speculate. Here are some of those:
  • high power technology in the hands of the individual requiring advances in high-power conduits such as high-temperature superconductors.
  • free and abundant energy sources owned by the individual
  • human-machine interfaces that bypass our five senses
  • Better understanding of matter, energy and space, enabling
    • superluminal travel
    • superluminal communication
    • force fields
    • energy-matter conversion
    • synthetic gravity/antigravity
60 years ago we imagined these things would be here in perhaps 90 years from today. Will our grandchildren be living any of these realities?
One thing is certain; we cannot escape the bonds of tyranny without first breaking the chains of dependence on trust in authority-by-force and consequently fiat currency
I suspect we'll be using mostly nuclear power.
The reason a banking industry would continue to exist has to do with outsourcing risk analysis to a specialist whose reputation is at stake. There will still be lending on a bitcoin standard, since it enables consumption smoothing over a lifetime. Some people are going to offer a return on deposits and do the work of figuring out credit worthiness of potential borrowers.
To your actual question, I think the institution of coercive governance might disappear by 2140, or at least the industrial era nation states will.
i fear it may be much worse
maybe u.s.a...
Either complete destruction of the human race due to war, or a type 1 civilization
That’s a long time horizon… financial organisations are more likely to evolve than disappear however.
All financial transactions will be conducted digitally, with cryptocurrency (in some form) being the predominant mode of payment. Centralised control of currencies will be a thing of the past as the market demands for decentralized control over the system.
Artificial intelligence will be closely integrated providing real-time market analysis and adaptive investment strategies. Automated trading algorithms will dominate markets, replacing human traders but their efficiency almost cancelling each other out and removing the opportunity for arbitrage or margin.
Banks and financial institutions will exist and have to work to ensure liquidity, store assets for high net worth individuals / organisations and facilitate trade as a trusted third party. Fiat mindset? Maybe. Not everyone will be able to cope..
Overall, the financial system will be driven by advanced technology regulated by government, with measures such as transparency, sustainability, and accountability competing with individual sovereignty, privacy, decentralisation and liberty.
But will it all collapse in a heap before we get there? …. #bitcoinforthewin
I think there will still be banks. banks intermediate lending and borrowing. I don't think people will not want to borrow money just because they use bitcoin
banks are also at the core of our corrupt states. our states are in a dysfunctional and abusive relationship with banking cartels. like organised crime won't disappear I don't think banks will disappear
I think or hope centralised power generation will be gone. I like to imagine the future will be energy abundant with free/low cost power and I think the innovations that will unleash will be wild
real estate as a store of value. instead value would shift with fads. No place will "go up forever" just like no song is always popular, and like how things go in and out of fashion. Maybe one decade people like the coast. Another decade people like the forest. Another decade people like desert, another people like skiing and snow climates. One decade urbanity is in fashion. Another decade solitude or suburbia. Then we can have a rural/farming decade. Who knows. But theres no real reason why a place would become valuable and stay that way forever and never lose an inch, other than by intentionally constricting the supply of housing because you want it to be a store of value, which is what currently happens. But people do that because they have the impetus to do that, because they are annoyed by inflation and struggle to find ways to avoid it, and housing presents itself as a relatively safe bet to them.
I agree with this one, or at least hope you're right! house prices right now are a joke
but i think it's going to be few generations before RE loses some of its status as a store of wealth. I don't know if it will completely lose this status though.
housing will go up 'forever' for as long as the wealthy and ruling classes write the rules to make it go up forever.
they're not going to let RE tank, or revise its favoured status in tax codes, because they are the ones in power. they own the majority of the RE and they are banking on it to help fund their retirements and to pass their wealth on to next generations.
The prompt says 2140. When the store of value aspect of real estate is assumed by bitcoin, there is no force which can circumvent that. The government can insist, but if no one wants to buy the property, it doesnt matter what price the government tries to maintain it at. People buy houses for the reasons I described, without that impetus, we inevitably encounter a far different dynamic in society. Sure youll still see plenty of houses being bought, but no longer for the same reasons or in the same areas, because the investment angle of property will be far less. In the interim period, well go through several phases. initially property is the clear way to pause your resources by buying a finite asset. then bitcoin is invented and rises faster than property values (thats the phase were in now), then property appreciation slows while investors allocate some to bitcoin (thats still to come), then property values become to completely flatline, as people completely divest from real estate in their portfolio as an investment as its existence is becoming similar to that of other commodities and the value fluctuates year to year, some years the demand for livable property will exceed supply, other years it wont, and because of that the value will go up and down, similar to grains like quinoa. People will still own houses, of course, but it will be more like owning a car, everyone will have one, and there will still be sentimentality, but there'll no longer be the false sense of scarcity caused by it being so sought after as a way to store ones resources over time.
At this point, the intentionally stymieing of development begins to break down, as people in the industry begin to see the writing on the walls and cut their losses. Think lab diamonds vs natural diamonds. They flood the market, as they see now they can no longer charge the same amount, and may as well try to use their established position and scale to try to undercut their competitors and starve them.
if bitcoin is fully monetised then its annual returns will be minimal in 2140
i dont think houses with ocean/harbour views, penthouses with cityscape views, etc are going to lose their premiums
I don't think its binary. bitcoin will be a store of value for sure but there will still be some RE that will act as store of value, shares in productive companies will be store of value, art will still be store of value etc
in 2140 there will still be people looking to invest in early stage companies because the returns for successfully investing outperform everything
for example its 2023 and people are still using, buying, collecting vinyl LPs even though majority of music is consumed digitally
Im not sure if you realize but 2140 is over a century from 2023
None that I’ll be alive to see