real estate as a store of value. instead value would shift with fads. No place will "go up forever" just like no song is always popular, and like how things go in and out of fashion. Maybe one decade people like the coast. Another decade people like the forest. Another decade people like desert, another people like skiing and snow climates. One decade urbanity is in fashion. Another decade solitude or suburbia. Then we can have a rural/farming decade. Who knows. But theres no real reason why a place would become valuable and stay that way forever and never lose an inch, other than by intentionally constricting the supply of housing because you want it to be a store of value, which is what currently happens. But people do that because they have the impetus to do that, because they are annoyed by inflation and struggle to find ways to avoid it, and housing presents itself as a relatively safe bet to them.
I agree with this one, or at least hope you're right! house prices right now are a joke
but i think it's going to be few generations before RE loses some of its status as a store of wealth. I don't know if it will completely lose this status though.
housing will go up 'forever' for as long as the wealthy and ruling classes write the rules to make it go up forever.
they're not going to let RE tank, or revise its favoured status in tax codes, because they are the ones in power. they own the majority of the RE and they are banking on it to help fund their retirements and to pass their wealth on to next generations.
The prompt says 2140. When the store of value aspect of real estate is assumed by bitcoin, there is no force which can circumvent that. The government can insist, but if no one wants to buy the property, it doesnt matter what price the government tries to maintain it at. People buy houses for the reasons I described, without that impetus, we inevitably encounter a far different dynamic in society. Sure youll still see plenty of houses being bought, but no longer for the same reasons or in the same areas, because the investment angle of property will be far less. In the interim period, well go through several phases. initially property is the clear way to pause your resources by buying a finite asset. then bitcoin is invented and rises faster than property values (thats the phase were in now), then property appreciation slows while investors allocate some to bitcoin (thats still to come), then property values become to completely flatline, as people completely divest from real estate in their portfolio as an investment as its existence is becoming similar to that of other commodities and the value fluctuates year to year, some years the demand for livable property will exceed supply, other years it wont, and because of that the value will go up and down, similar to grains like quinoa. People will still own houses, of course, but it will be more like owning a car, everyone will have one, and there will still be sentimentality, but there'll no longer be the false sense of scarcity caused by it being so sought after as a way to store ones resources over time.
At this point, the intentionally stymieing of development begins to break down, as people in the industry begin to see the writing on the walls and cut their losses. Think lab diamonds vs natural diamonds. They flood the market, as they see now they can no longer charge the same amount, and may as well try to use their established position and scale to try to undercut their competitors and starve them.
if bitcoin is fully monetised then its annual returns will be minimal in 2140
i dont think houses with ocean/harbour views, penthouses with cityscape views, etc are going to lose their premiums
I don't think its binary. bitcoin will be a store of value for sure but there will still be some RE that will act as store of value, shares in productive companies will be store of value, art will still be store of value etc
in 2140 there will still be people looking to invest in early stage companies because the returns for successfully investing outperform everything
for example its 2023 and people are still using, buying, collecting vinyl LPs even though majority of music is consumed digitally
Im not sure if you realize but 2140 is over a century from 2023