First of all, let me make my point here:
I see a world in which we can pay for things -- and get paid -- as we consume/work.
I'm talking about:
  • beer taps that charge you based on the amount you pour.
  • movies/TV streaming platforms that charge based on your time watched, not a flat rate per month.
  • paying for energy as you consume it, not a bill that gets sent in the mail weeks after the fact (this is what the Bitcoin startup Synota is working on)
  • direct deposits landing every day/hour/minute/second that you work at your shift.
This model, of course, doesn't apply to everything.
I wouldn't want to "pay as I wear" a new t-shirt or own a "pay as you walk" shoe.
However, that's essentially where we're drifting towards with today's money.
Subscription payments are becoming more and more prominent everywhere today, and it really speaks to the state of fiat financials seeing all these crazy buy-now-pay-later models for everyday items.
IMO, we'll probably look back on the subscription mania we see today like we do the horse & buggy.
Are subscription models a mere foreshadowing of what's to come with Lightning payments?
What happens to payments when we unlock instant settlement?
Is this where you see Lightning going as well?
I think the buy now pay later model is fundamentally different from sats streaming. Some items, such as shoes or a t-shirt cannot be broken down into pieces to be consumed. These all-or-nothing items are not suitable to be purchased via sats streaming. Sats streaming excel in buying items that are able to be broken down into fine, fungible increments; like billing on how many minutes or even seconds you stream a show, or how many oz of beer you poured.
Buy now pay later is debt consumption, and I don’t think it will work well on a bitcoin standard because of Bitcoin’s increasing purchasing power over time. Debt consumption only makes sense on an inflationary currency like fiat. Sats streaming is actually final settlement of incremental consumption of a good that can be broken down, in real time. Streaming sats for equipment rental might be a thing, but streaming sats to buy out an all-or-nothing item does not make sense to me. At least, if I’m the vendor selling an all-or-nothing item, I would not let you walk away with it until you pay me in full in sats.
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Yes, I was never suggesting bringing BNPL into a Bitcoin standard -- I think Lightning will bust that payment model
Fully agree with all your points
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Absolutely, the number of buy now / pay later options offered at checkout nowadays is pretty scary. Seems much more like a desperate fight for survival on the part of the seller than a special perk or convenience that they’re graciously offering to customers. Obviously we’re supposed to believe they’re doing us a favor by baiting us into more and more debt
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movies/TV streaming platforms that charge based on your time watched, not a flat rate per month.
I don't think services would want to do that. Not taking a flat fee would make it hard to project what the future income would look like as you can't easily predict how much time each user will use the service for in a 30 day period or even a 180 day period. I'd also imagine that they would earn less because of the uncertainty in how much they should charge each user to cover all the costs.
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I agree that services wouldn't want "pay for use" vs monthly. I know the pricing model for a lot of gyms is that you pay monthly but then never use it. I think services are the same - their favorite customer is one that pays monthly but doesn't use it.
A lot will depend on the price of streaming minutes/data. If it costs a few cents to watch an episode of Friends then no big deal. If it costs a few dollars per episode then people might limit themselves or feel less "emotional" burden for the monthly subscription services.
For users that hardly ever watch shows then the cost of minutes will be cheaper than a monthly fee. For users that binge watch shows the monthly fee might be the cheaper option.
It'll be interesting to see how things play out.
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You pointed out a big issue that leads me to believe that, regardless of what lightning does, current subscription models are on the way out.
I know the pricing model for a lot of gyms is that you pay monthly but then never use it. I think services are the same - their favorite customer is one that pays monthly but doesn't use it.
We have a plethora of services that bank on an inactive community to fund their company. It's not a genuine business relationship keeping the company alive, it's profiting off complacency.
You can probably think of tons of industries doing the same thing.
We don't know how it'll play out, but I think Lightning will step in to bring companies and their customers closer. People will be more mindful of their spending, and that's a good thing. It promotes more valuable exchange between each party.
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While I would very much like something like that to be where we are heading, I think the flip side to it is whether or not consumers actually want the mental burden of it.
Most merchants/services are incentivized not to do it and most consumers don't want to think about every single transaction they make in a day while power users scoff at the idea of paying much more than they are today for the same experience.
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Would there be more or less mental burden if your grocery bill was subscription based?
I'd guess more burden during the switch and probably the same mental burden after a couple of months. It's literally an apples to mp3s comparison but I'm not certain there's much difference. Net net, I feel as burdened by the streaming subscriptions I have as the streaming rentals that I purchase.
Mental burden might be more elastic than we think.
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The idea of having a subscription for grocery gives me so many concerns. But they seem to be successful so maybe I'm just out of touch.
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I see these subscription models as a lot like insurance. There's going to be a premium in there and I believe it's foolish to pay it. Streaming sats is a fun gimmick but it's not how I want to do everything.
The power of bitcoin is providing a fair foundation on which to try all these things without hidden interest rates and temporary licenses. That system is rotten and it's refreshing to v4v, tip, and purchase tchotchkies while opting-out of stupid fiat games.
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Interesting, although I don't see why it's best to pay for energy as you consume it, rather than monthly 🧐 Same goes for beers etc.
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Do you think McDonalds would benefit from copying the energy producer's business model by allowing anyone to come and get whatever they wanted whenever they wanted something, and then billed them for whatever they consumed at the end of the month, hoping everyone pays up?
do you think their underlying costs would go up or down in this case?
The energy companies could (and most likely will) have two price models.... the "use now / pay now" price, and the "use now / pay later" price.
I top up my energy budget's lightning address, I pay for what I use as I use it, which means I save on my energy costs. It would be a no brainer to anyone who is looking to be smart with their money. "Oh, I can save 25% on my energy bill by paying at the beginning of the month instead of the end?"
That's an easy decision.
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Agreed, if my sats are streaming real time as I consume the electricity, the overall amount I consume would definitely change materially. I wouldn’t ever leave any lights turned on when heading out to run errands, I’d open the refrigerator less often, maybe I’d even lose some weight and live longer.
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In this example, you could probably have your cake and eat it too.
If your energy bill was going to be $200 on the credit price, but since you stream your sats, it costs you the equivalent of $160 in btc terms... even if you're irresponsible with your energy use it might cost ~$180, you'll still end up saving more sats than if you were consuming normally at the credit price.
I'd assume once your wallet runs out then they'd just start charging the credit price and bill you if you don't top up within a certain period of time.
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I've actually met the Synota guys in person, gotten to talk with them a bit about the model.
The energy bill you pay is for electricity you've already consumed from weeks ago. You pay after the fact.
The idea is that paying as you use energy benefits energy providers, since they're receiving capital for others' consumption of their energy instantly.
These companies often have multiple subsidiaries they have to pay as well. The way we currently do things -- separate consumption from payment -- can place downstream pressures on energy companies who have subsidiaries on other regions. After energy companies get paid, they also have to go out and pay any subsidiaries, which even further delays when they get paid.
Synota is battle testing this idea right now with Bitcoin miners.
The high-level vision is synchronizing consumption with energy to make everyone's processes more efficient (and subsequently cheaper) over time.
I'm definitely not smart enough to validate the success of the idea, but Jeff Booth's egodeath capital is a big investor, among others.
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imo micropayment models make sense in some cases but don't in many.
One way to think about this is to think about payments as commitments. The larger the payment, the larger the commitment, and the higher your certainty that you'll receive net value gain in the exchange.
So I think they make a lot of sense when our commitment may be low, but high enough that we're willing to pay something. eg Streaming payments for content from random creators makes sense, because I can bail out early and only pay for what I consume. But it doesn't make sense for something I know I'm going to 100% consume, like John Wick 4.
We all want the payment model that's the most efficient for our consumption strategy and efficiency isn't always one size fits all.
beer taps that charge you based on the amount you pour.
There was a wine bar in my college town that did this with prepaid cards and dispensing machines. It was novel but it didn't feel like a huge improvement iirc.
paying for energy as you consume it, not a bill that gets sent in the mail weeks after the fact (this is what the Bitcoin startup Synota is working on)
This makes sense imo.
direct deposits landing every day/hour/minute/second that you work at your shift.
So does this ... both of these are ordinarily trusted "afterpay" scenarios though which is kind of interesting.
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Value 4 value is amazing and I'm sure the possibilities are endless but I'd speculate ways of paying like buy now pay later become a thing of the past.
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I'm on the fence with the utility of streaming sats with existing services. I can see it being very useful - especially to people that consume little or are frugal. But for people that watch TV nightly, for example, it might be a better deal to pay a monthly fee. I see it a bit like a buffet - it's not totally worth it for a light eater but it might be a steal for someone that can pack it away.
I think something that'll be interesting to see is that directors/creators can make stuff and potentially bypass services like Netflix/Hulu/etc. If someone could make a TV show/movie and then get paid per minute streamed without needing to worry about merchant fees, user accounts, etc then that'd be interesting.
Of course, existing studios will have lots of money/power and will make a bunch of the big hits and those might stay on platforms like Disney/HBO/Netflix/etc but I could see artists trying to build a name for themselves.
In the far future maybe someone like Christopher Nolan directs an AI to make an epic movie or show. He then posts it to his nostr account and people stream sats to watch it (or just pay a flat rate up front).
I guess someone just has to make a decentralized video/music streaming protocol that streams sats to the authors and those hosting the files. One issue, though, is probably copyright/DRM. Christopher Nolan might not want to put a movie on this service if someone else can just copy it and sell it for cheaper.
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I see a break down of subscription bundling eg instead of $10 a month for Netflix it'll be pay as you stream (eg per second). Creating products and content is getting easier everyday via AI so offerings will become more competitive to compete for scarce human time. In a competitive market for attention, prices tend to get driven down. In a sats driven world prices may be driven down to the smallest exchange rate (sats per joule, sats per second).
Then there's also programmable sat splitting that could change the cost structure of product/content offering which also allows pricing of smallest exchange rate to be more viable. A lot of pricing will be done in real time with live metrics like view time or user engagement. It's all just better, HD information that allows product offerers to be more competitive in their services and give a fairer price to consumers.
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It is a good ideia...