Shockingly, 3 out of the last 4 Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Adjustments have been negative. [...] A small caveat is that each of these downward adjustments was very marginal, less than 2% down. However, it is very significant that the network hash rate has not been growing at the rate many analysts expected.

Zooming out, it is easy to see the rapid network difficulty growth that took place after the China mining ban. This occurred due to a large number of machines temporarily being turned off and shipped to other countries around the world.

Bitcoin ASICs are commoditizing, so new generation machines will no longer come out and cause a magnitude increase in hash rate like 2009-2020. The new generation machines will still have the upper hand when it comes to efficiency and profitability, and they won’t become obsolete over the next couple of years.

Third, many public companies and large-scale miners may have overestimated the amount of hash rate they could deploy in a short period of time. Building the infrastructure to host 100s of MWs of power is not an easy task.

Mining with new generation ASICs is a fantastic strategy to dollar cost average into Bitcoin at a discount.