The Kiel Trade Indicator reported a negative outlook in July compared to June for global trade and major economies. Early month shipping movements hinted at poor results, confirmed with complete data later. Major concerns stem from worldwide economic downturn perspectives. Despite recent bad news from maritime traffic, the overall picture remains consistent. July's data shows a 1.6% decline for global trade, with Germany's exports down 0.4% and imports down 1.2%. The EU recorded even higher losses in both exports and imports. Vincent Stamer, head of Kiel Trade Indicator, noted that Europe's economic downturn is evident, with business sentiments in powerhouse countries like Germany and France only being worse during 2020 .
21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Arceris 9 Aug 2023
Ooof. From 1929-1932, global trade volume plummeted by 30%. These declines, if they continue apace, are very concerning.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 9 Aug 2023
... and the geopolitical situation is getting worse.
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21 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 9 Aug 2023
And today Biden will add more trade restrictions with China. Obviously for different reasons, but the end result is the same.
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74 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 9 Aug 2023
Did You see recent trade data from China? It's a total knock down.
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 9 Aug 2023
Yes. And I always assume there is some faked upside built into the numbers.
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74 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 9 Aug 2023
Yep. Their demografics are tearing them down.
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @eggos 10 Aug 2023
Yeah seems like a nothingburger idk shit is actually not that deep my guy
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK OP 10 Aug 2023
Let's see what happens. From European perspective there clearly is a recessionary spiral with the well-known structural problems of the Eurozone visible. The US econ seems to hold up just because of Brandon spending like there's no tomorrow. The Ukraine credit machine keeps the keyensian wet dream afloat...
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100 sats \ 3 replies \ @eggos 10 Aug 2023
What do you view as the worst case scenario that could emerge from this crisis? We still have yet to how the money printer go brr will affect the wider landscape of the world? Higher prices? Less free flow of movement? People lose money and stock go down?
I've been hearing from the Bitcoin space for a while that the world is slowly heading down the shitter, yet life goes on. War in some places. Peace in others. High prices for goods here. Low prices there. Is there really a dramatic change going on, or is it just the same shit in a different toilet?
Are we really finding something new by counting the various changes and analyzing those changes, or are we just losing ourselves in the mirage of our own creation?
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 10 Aug 2023
I think there's good proof that the economy in the ''West'' and obviously in China too is running out of steam. Look at the debt spiral, rising poverty in the US and Eurozone and like You mentioned military conflicts. Try to compare the status quo with,let's say, the 90s. Real wages are coming down, asset inflation evaporates the middle class. What we need is re-calibrating the time horizon of the obvious decay. The political class will consume and spend anything before people realize that it was there life and work that went through the commie grinder. There still is a looot of capital to confiscate and money to be debased. I don't see a systematical change in this decade. But it's coming like the next hurricane.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @eggos 10 Aug 2023
Fair enough, I guess we're on the same page.
Hard times -> Strong men -> good times -> weak men -> hard times -> ...
End of the previous cycle, beginning of the next?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 10 Aug 2023
Yes, I think so. And I can understand the youngsters in the Bitcoin community that are watching this rigged game that robs them and there parents blind of opportunities. But there won't be a hyperbitcoinized world any time soon. The only people I know here in Spain having Bitcoin are my wife, the kids, two friends that I recruted... that's it. Nobody has it on his radar. So my recommendation would be: education, work, family, discipline, music, art and philo AND: buying it now and then, having liquidity in case something goes wrong in life ( what will always be the case) and let the world turn around and around
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