odds are small that Russia will invade either Poland or the Baltics, as it would trigger Article 5 and NATO would step in.
Russia don't have enough available troops and equipment currently to even try to have a fight with Poland currently. Unless you are talking about nuclear war.
I see Poland taking part of north-western Ukraine (Lviv oblast, Volyn Oblast and possibly more)
I think you see it totally wrong. Every nation in region have had past conflicts. Even Baltic states between themselves. But things have changed. Currently Poland is one of biggest supporters of Ukraine in this war against Russian aggression.
As to your first point, we both say exactly the same thing, I just gave a different reason as to why Russia would not invade, so there's no disagreement there.
As to your second point, you're right that every nation in the region has had conflicts with neighbors. What you seem to forget, however, is that the borders have changed after almost every conflict throughout history and to think that we are special is, in my view, naive.
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It was before Helsinki Accords that most of the signatories try to follow, as it's not worth having small regional teritorial gain at a risk of losing some territory elsewhere. Border changes in Europe afterwards has happened by either countries uniting (Germany) or splitting apart (Yugoslavia, Soviet Union). Except for what Russians do.
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