In popular military adage, “No plan survives contact with the enemy.”

For miners, the enemies are supply chain snags, raw material/labor shortages, and time.

There’s currently not enough fully-equipped warehouse and rack space available to host the million or so ASICs looking for homes.

With no place to plug in machines, hashrate is growing slower than we expected, and ASIC prices are taking a hit as a result.

Fees were 1.25% of block rewards on average in Q1, down 15.5% from Q4’s average of 1.48%.

2022–and to a greater degree, 2023–could be a washout year for some Bitcoin miners.

Barring another Bitcoin bull spurt, hashprice will trend towards $0.10/TH/day.

So many machines are already sidelined for lack of rack space. Combine this with the entry of Blockstream and Intel into the ASIC miner manufacturing game, and it seems reasonable that prices will fall further still.

Give or take 5%, Bitcoin’s hashrate could end the year around 275 EH/s.