Regarding privacy, LN is definitely a big improvement in comparison to on chain transactions.
But...
Lightning network does not give any assurances. Things can still be (actively) tracked. Between on chain transactions and LN payments, the later is preferable, but don't expect it to be bullet proof.
If you need to transact privately (regardless of your reasons), perhaps Monero is a better tool for you.
Why bother spending time with a protocol that is not immutable, and its anonymity set is bollocks? Instead of using monero, learn how to use joinmarket to improve your btc privacy. Next, set up your own node, and do not use wallets that track your data. Not to mention start off your journey by purchasing non-kyc sats
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If you think Monero's anonymity set sucks, it wouldn't then make sense to tell people to use joinmarket (a fraction of Monero's anon set).
Not even getting into coinjoin obfuscation being a weaker form of privacy (range of amounts and transaction graph are still completely visible)
non-KYC is always good advice for either one
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Read again what you wrote, I think you will be able to spot the problem(s).
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I was trying to comapre network activity between the two, let me try agian. So, you can go ahead and swim in your tiny pond (xmr) that only a few people really understand how to use in a private manner or go and swim in an ocean (btc), where a cohort of people are buying non-kyc sats or using tools like joinmarket to improve privacy for the network as a whole.
What I am getting at:
If xmr is used by less people than btc, I am pretty sure it is like wearing a sign on your back that says kick me. Especially for noobs, who sign up to binance and purchase xmr (since it is marketed as privacy coin), because they want to buy drugs online. To calrify, I am not saying you can use btc to do this. In fact, if you want to engage in "funny businness", then do not use anything that touches the internet.
Final thoughts, I just find xmr to be a slippery slope for the average person and that's why I'd recommend to get lost in an ocean, rather than swim in a tiny pond. So congrats to the folks, who are swimming in the ocean, and bought non-kyc sats. You probably will not slip down a slope and can use your sats to buy coffee or donate to fundraisers online. However, you are far safer from the 5 dollar wrench attack if you coin join on wasabiou are far safer from the 5-dollar wrench attack, especially if you coin join on wasabi, samurai or joinmarket from time to time.
https://blog.keys.casa/how-to-protect-your-bitcoin-from-5-wrench-attacks/ FYI: I am not linking this casa blog here to recommend their products, it is just that Jamson Lopp coined the term "5 dollar wrench attack" if I am not mistaken
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Your BTC pond is smaller than you otherwise suggest. Nowhere close to a majority of BTC users are your anon set.
How many BTC users park their coin on exchanges fully KYC'd? How many Bitcoiners use Join Market? How many Bitcoiners coinjoin every spend? How many users coinjoin at all? This is the tragedy of optional privacy. Most users will use defaults. XMR is also not as ubiquitously available on CEXes like BTC is. It's delisted many places.
If you are using XMR you are most likely privacy conscious in the first place. Why would users have to learn to use Monero? There isn't much to learn. You hit send. Privacy is built into Monero on the protocol level. All things equal there are by far many more ways for users to mess up "privacy" on BTC and shoot yourself in the foot. Not only must you attain "privacy" with BTC, you must maintain it going into the future!
Bitcoin can never be private. It is a public blockchain. The most you can hope for is psuedonymity and obfuscation (a weaker form of privacy vs encryption - everything is still visible).
Unlike Bitcoin, Monero's transaction graph is completely hidden. Amounts and recievers aren't even available to see on Monero's blockchain.
You can use a screwdriver as a hammer if you want, but it is not the ideal tool for the job.
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