one million satoshis

Shoot for future block rewards as your goal. If you want to retire today, get 6.25 BTC

In four years? 3.125 BTC

2040? 0.2 BTC

There is a calculation like this:

If you need 100.000 usd per year you need to multiply it by 25. So 2.5 million. The 25 is that you get 4% return on your investment.

If you are more bulish you multiply by 20. So 2 million usd.

That means your investment of 2.5 million is giving dividents of say 4% a year net after taxes. And you love out of these dividents only.

If you translate this into bitcoin, you need an investment of 2 million usd to be able to live on 100 K

If your bitcoin investment gives you a divident of 4%.

That can be an appreciation of say 8% per year and you eat 4% per year.

That means you need 66 bitcoin at a current price of 30.000.

If you wanted to retire today!

That is how I calculate it.

And that 100.000 usd would be the basket of goods and services you would want to buy today till your retirement.

Your lifestyle basket.

Retirement? Great post. Some people can never retire. Check also my post here about how pension funds can rob your retirement savings!!

I post it because it is relevant to your post @pycan.

Replying on you.

I think any amout of sats to keep my current life style.

If you have a lifestyle of say: Going on vacation once Eating out once a month Driving a car Windsurfing Buying books Groceries

You can calculate how much inflation there is for this life style of goods and services after your retirement.

And then based on the USD/BTC exchange rate assumption you can calculate the BTC you need to save.

Suppose your assets worth $X appreciate on average by Y% every year in "real" terms (adjusted for monetary debasement) until you die.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is a term popularized in early retirement circles, and is defined as what sum you can safely skim off the top of your assets every year without eating into the principal. To retire forever, your expenses need to be less than the SWR.

The SWR is calculated as:

SWR = $X * Y% / 100%

For example: A Vanguard Life Strategy fund might return Y = 4% on average (inflation adjusted), and your living expenses in today's terms are $50k. So retire forever, you need a fund equal to X = $50k * 100% / 4% = $1.25M.

Bitcoin is a lot more interesting as it's highly volatile and nobody can predict how much it'll appreciate. But we can make some educated guesses. Let's assume it overtakes gold's market cap in the next 20 years, which is a 2000% increase from here or ~16% per year.

Using the same living expenses, the BTC stash needs to be X = $50k * 100%/16% = $313k = 12.2 BTC at today's prices of $25600 / BTC.

To be a bit more safe you could take BTC's price at the trough of the last bear market ($15k / BTC), meaning you'd need a stash of 20.8 BTC.

To put this all in a very easy formula:

This is all pulled completely out of my ass and will no doubt be invalidated in the near future, but it's fun to think about.

The goal is not retirement but finding out what you enjoy doing while getting rewards for doing that. Then there is no need for retirement because you already have fun every day, and Bitcoin enables us to do that.

Retirement or pension are fiat world inventions.

5000 btc is enough for me.

6.15, but I am the type that doesn't vacation well, i would still work and look to do things to keep myself active and busy, i'd probably just keep stacking, i'm not a big consoomer anymore

Don't retire.

this is an interesting posit.

and there's the never ending rise of inflation of goods and services, to consider.

then there's the question of: (and the big one most bitcoiners hate, because it tends to break linear brains:)

when something has only been valuated against a fiat currency, what determines its actual value? is it scarcity? is it demand? is it something else??? a big part of that has to be adoption, and if there isn't a concurrent or switch over type adoption, it will continue IMHO to valuate itself against fiat currency, or some kind of central bank currency.

the biggest unknown is the switchover to cbdc's, wherein bitcoin may and hyperbolistic may ----- be seen as far more valuable than cbdc's, because at least you can spend it feasibly, on what you want, and it doesn't have programmable limits, rationing, as much monitoring etc built into it - to the central bank.

so there's that. and therein the above.

and honestly? i'd love to buy a small piece of land, build a house on it, and just grow a garden, shoot an Elk every so often, and that kind of thing - but to be totally realistic, i'm living in an apartment, and can't generate the money to even begin to save up for something like that. I'm not a wage job guy, and I've always been either bored far too quickly in the role feeling underappreciated, or far too intelligent and broad thinking for the role, and quickly fell back to 'bored too quickly," and at worst, a boss would become jealous and find some weird excuse to get rid of me.

go figure.

but as far as the pure economics of the matter, it all depends on valuation against established economic standards, and or the total destruction of the extant system, one of these would be what carries the most determinant weight on any proper answer to this question; Compounded of course in complexity by weather or not inflation even still exists - in the future global economy.

Also: will people still work a 9-5 in the future? there are so many questions...hope this helps elucidate untoward some percentage of them.

I think I'll just keep stacking until its becomes clear that its enough. Then I would still work, but only on things that interest me.

It's more than people think given that there is no risk free yield on bitcoin and that bitcoin can face long bear markets with 80% drawdowns. You also have to consider taxes and unforeseen expenses. People want to assume that bitcoin will appreciate by X percent a year but that isn't a guarantee you can retire on. And it wouldn't feel good to have your net worth in BTC constantly declining.

You’re retiring on 300k?

2x my current stack would be nice. 1.5x minimum.

8000 BTC