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How Many Bitcoin Will HyperBitcoinisation Run on?
75 sats \ 19 comments \ @TheBTCManual 11 May 2022 bitcoin
I was listening to the latest poddy from Svetski and Knut regarding the sat squeese during hyperbitcoinisation and that the float of bitcoin would be around 1 million.
Each cycle we see people coming in, and doing things like
  • Stuffing up self custody
  • Sending to addresses where the private key is lost
  • Losing their private keys
  • Thinking a "dust" UTXO can't be moved and getting rid of the wallet
  • Sending to an address that doesn't exist
  • Dying without having a plan to hand over
All eating into the supply of lost bitcoin, I've seen estimates that up to 3 million bitcoin have already been lost and we know there are only 2 million still to come over the next century
My estimate would be around half the supply 9 -10 million will be available and accessible, not to saying they'll all be moved and eventually a satoshi won't be small enough of a unit
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @cryptocoin 11 May 2022
This concept of "not enough coins for the economy to run" / hoarding is bad comes from back when there was metal coinage. When a silver Spanish real could only be divided into pieces of eight, and one bit (1/8th) was more valuable than most small items, then yes -- that money lost its divisibility property, and no longer worked well as a currency. And economic repercussions occurred.
There's a couple orders of magnitude in price that would need to occur before the divisibility of 1 sat is something that the market might find useful.
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheBTCManual OP 14 May 2022
I don't think people can get their heads around what that means and the benefits of infinite divisibility to measure the stock of goods and services without delusion, it was one of the things that when it clicked for me I left shitcoin land, unit bias is a hell of a drug
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13 sats \ 11 replies \ @handsome_latino 11 May 2022
A soft/hard fork may come into play where Satoshis are divided further -- in the Lightning Network it is possible to transact mSats (1/1000th of a satoshi).
It's kind of like slicing your pizza into further smaller slices.
Funny story: on my first Lightning transaction, I saw the fee as been 2000sats and I freaked out. It was actually 2000mSats.
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13 sats \ 10 replies \ @TheBTCManual OP 11 May 2022
I wonder what we would call mSats, I guess its the same issue taking to people about bitcoin vs sats. I don't think that's the best user experience, but I guess we worry about that when we get there
If we do get to the mSat level, I wonder how many current UTXOs that are considered dust today, would be worth looking for those Private keys again
Lol I moved some bitcoin on Liquid today was laughing because the cost was 400 sats and I was so stoked 2000mSats damn its really stupid cheap to use LN people are sleeping on it, just wish there were more P2P markets for it
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36 sats \ 6 replies \ @glix 11 May 2022
Andreas suggested 1/1000th of a sat to be called a sipa after Pieter Wuille's nick. Can't remember if it was actually Andreas's suggestion or he was just relaying someone elses
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @handsome_latino 12 May 2022
How about something like Nakamotos? Or Minimotos.
"Just sent you 2500 minimotos (2.5 sats)".
Alright, I know it won't stick. But if it does I have thus written it first (I think)
EDIT: On the other hand it'd be nice to attribute Peter Wuille, as long as he doesn't turn evil -- how will we ever know? ;)
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20 sats \ 3 replies \ @pony 12 May 2022
How about calling them Finneys?
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @glix 14 May 2022
Yup my vote goes to Finney or short Fin/Fins also could be nice, but not necessary.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheBTCManual OP 14 May 2022
Lol I do think we need to have a finney something, maybe for something on new side chains that launch if we do get things like drivechains or softchains
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @handsome_latino 14 May 2022
love this one! 2000 finneys was the fee.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheBTCManual OP 11 May 2022
@handsome_latino was charged 2000 sipa to move his sats on LN, lol gotta get used to the jargon unofficially or officially
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @justsmile 11 May 2022
It is a milliSat. And my impression is that only CLN is able to pay 1msat invoice from a CLN node to another CLN node connected straight through a channel.
coinos.io ignores msat, so does stacker.news wallet.
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12 sats \ 1 reply \ @handsome_latino 12 May 2022
Ah, I see, I thought it was widely used, thanks for the correction! Take 10,000 mSats ;)
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @justsmile 15 May 2022
It is widely used by any Lightning Network node, just that they mostly count the fees in milliSats and set the minHTLC to 1000 which is one Sat and so it is not possible to send one milliSat between many nodes. CLN has minHTLC set to 1 milliSat by default. Others can possibly do it as well, just that it is not the default setting.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @zuspotirko 11 May 2022
Yeah, this is something I think about a lot too.
And then you divide these numbers by the world population or make calculations based on if 10% or 1% of the world population own 50% of all bitcoin etc.
It's crazy to think about.
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7 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheBTCManual OP 11 May 2022
It's mind blowing when you think about it like that because you realise how early you are, if we consider full dilusion of 21 million right now then its 228k sats for every person in the world
But if lets say the float is half that we're talking about 100k sats for everyone which right now is so cheap to acquire, we're really front running a lot of value yet to come
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @Majjin 11 May 2022
I agree that half the supply will be lost and the other half will be accessible. However, of the supply that's not lost, I think a third or more will be locked up in cold storage. So 6 - 7 million bitcoin on the market IMO. That's just my gut feeling.
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1 sat \ 1 reply \ @TheBTCManual OP 11 May 2022
So if we agree that a float of 6 - 7 million sets the price of bitcoin, is recycled for productively as hodlers don't bleed out very much and nor do miners in the future, it sort of breaks my head because donimointing in fiat would make very little sense or man a satoshi would be worth a bunch
I wonder how it affects pricing, will we be priced in sats or denominate in USD but settle in sats, I feel like there's going to be a long awkward period of that before we fully talking in sats
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Majjin 11 May 2022
I think the economy will be a pretty even mix of those who use their national currencies and those who use Bitcoin. During that transition period, I think that services like Strike will become very widely used. A lot of businesses will settle transactions in sats through these services but will still be denominated in USD or whatever currency they have. I have a feeling that this will be particularly true for businesses in the energy sector.
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