Hi everyone, I'm doing a small user research on the price on Bitcoin compared to USD.
So here's how it works:
Everyone is invited to guess what you think the price of Bitcoin will be on Sunday, May22nd, using Yahoo Finance's Close value.
Please use an integer dollar value. For example, I predict it will be $30,100 USD.
From now to Monday midnight UTC time you write your prediction (ideally as a reply to the post itself, not a nested reply to a comment), and after I will create a JSON file with the snapshot of all the entries and usernames.
===
My empirical hypothesis is that the price is completely unpredictable, and with enough time, the split between higher and lower prediction will be a perfect 50-50 split.
===
I'm hoping to run this experiment for 6 to 12 months, every week. I will create a graph chart published somewhere at handsomelatino.com
To encourage a good estimation, I'm offering 1800 Sats price, delivered on May 22nd using stacker.news's Lightning address:
- 1st place: 1000 sats
- 2nd place: 500 sats
- 3rd place: 300 sats
If there is a tie-breaker on the integer dollar value, we will split the prices (edge case, if anyone knows what is the best way to split it let me know).
Feel free to introduce your reasoning about your predictions and if you're into Technical Analysis or just using your sixth sense; but bear in mind that your estimation has to take into account any unforeseen event (that's the whole point of it), such as:
- A meteorite hitting Earth.
- Dinosaurs getting cloned from DNA hidden inside an amber-preserved prehistorical insect.
- Governments being... governments.
I'd like to use stacker.news since its user-base is less trolls and bots, and (I believe) more real users for now since we are a smaller more focused community, I mean we're all the best people evar seriously.
If possible, please refrain from criticizing other people's prediction or logic, the whole point is to see if we're heading somewhere. For example, I would love to be proven wrong and realize that @DarthCoin has a prediction that is only 5% off on average for one year. Imagine!
@koob hope it's okay to use the community for this! I promise not to spam too much.