Meta Econ Takeover Day 4 \ stacker news ~meta

563 sats \ 9 comments \ @Undisciplined 20 Oct 2023 meta

On Centralization, Decentralization, and Self-Defense By Hans-Hermann Hoppe "Two guiding principles must be followed by small states and even more so by secessionist movements, whether leading to another, smaller state or a state-less territory (an anarchic social order): First, do not provoke, and second, be armed."

The US Is Entering a Debt Spiral By Ryan McMaken "There are many factors that affect the yield on government bonds. Yet, it is surely no coincidence that we continue to see yields climb as the federal government churns out new government debt at a breakneck speed never before seen during peacetime."

Correlations and the Definition of the Money Supply By Frank Shostak "Monetary authorities and monetary economists try to define money without understanding what money really is: a medium of exchange."

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163 sats \ 5 replies \ @siggy47 20 Oct 2023

I have been watching mainstream talking heads expressing varying degrees of shock over the fact that US treasuries, and particularly the 10 year, not acting as the safe haven, "risk free" asset it is supposed to be during this time of severe macro turmoil. At the same time, I actually saw a CNBC headline today explaining bitcoin's price rise as a flight to safety.

328 sats \ 2 replies \ @gabybaby 20 Oct 2023

I think the market is realizing that lending the next marginal dollar to an entity $33T (and counting) in debt is not as risk-free as before. It's a curious case where the private market is sounding the recessionary klaxon alarm which would normally be deflationary, but because the federal government is running such large deficits it creates a floor for demand and is thus a countervailing inflationary force. In many ways it defies what the talking heads have come to believe about recessions and cause-effect relationships between different economic levers.

Edit: I tend to tune out pundits and politicians when it comes to deciphering the state of the economy and instead look to industries like logistics to see where we may be at. In this case, at least some parts of the trucking market appear to be in or headed into a deep freeze which you can see from this article here.

Overall, if there is low demand for transportation of goods, it has many implications both up and downstream.

168 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 20 Oct 2023

This, coupled with the fact that both China and Japan have to liquidate dollar based assets to try to keep their currencies afloat. I expect a BOJ intervention very soon, which will further weaken US treasuries. Also, China is instituting capital controls (again).

176 sats \ 0 replies \ @gabybaby 20 Oct 2023

Rumor is China has been behind the latest spike in yields. I wouldn't be surprised, they're facing some very deep systemic problems that are decades in the making. Totally agree with your point that they're shedding ballast to try and stay afloat. Curious to see how it plays out.

33 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 20 Oct 2023

a CNBC headline today explaining bitcoin's price rise as a flight to safety

Wow! That pretty much just used to be gold. Looks like we've arrived.

143 sats \ 0 replies \ @gabybaby 20 Oct 2023

That's awesome! My hope is more and more people see under the surface and realize the common talking point of "BTC is a hedge against inflation" is really more accurate when stated as "BTC is a hedge against monetary shenanigans" which, despite the (small) QT and rising yields, is really still ongoing because of the fiscal situation.

143 sats \ 2 replies \ @gabybaby 20 Oct 2023

Love the Mises wire. Have its feed going through my RSS reader.

On the topic of monetary supply and its creation, I'd encourage anyone on SN with the time to read The Ethics of Money Production by Jörg Guido Hülsmann, also available on the Mises Institute site here.

143 sats \ 1 reply \ @elvismercury 20 Oct 2023

I've wondered about this book for a while. Is there anything in there that a literate bitcoiner hasn't already read a thousand times?

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 20 Oct 2023

There's probably still some new insights in there, but literate Bitcoiners tend to be well acquainted with this topic.

One thing I've noticed about literate Bitcoiners is that they aren't always aware of a lot of the insights of pre-Bitcoin thinkers and there tends to be some reinventing of wheels.