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186 sats \ 22 replies \ @siggy47 24 Oct 2023 \ on: Don't get too upset about the bulls***. BITCOIN is the TROJAN HORSE. bitcoin
I appreciate your optimism. I agree with you regarding shit coins, but I see these spot ETFs as fiat's last gasp Trojan Horse attack against bitcoin. Like Snowden and Farrington have warned, the old rotten financial system can coopt and control bitcoin as it did gold. You're right. It's a test for bitcoin. How many of us won't ultimately sell out to BlackRock if we are offered wealth beyond our wildest dreams in the here and now?
Bitcoin was designed for these attacks, and if anything, i see spot etfs as a massive signal to us that Bitcoin is trending where we want it to go. The attacks from the powers that be only validate that.
The way I see it, if Bitcoin hyperbitcoinizes, that implies massive flight of capital out of fiat vehicles, including ETFs. When everyone is dumping legacy assets to pile into Bitcoin, will the market not at some point price in the true value of ETFs (ZERO)?
How we actually tangibly solve the paper bitcoin problem is beyond me, but if Bitcoin really does unlock a truly free market, then I'd like to think we can send BlackRock into a withdrawal spiral crisis like FTX and all the rest trying to print paper Bitcoin
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Never underestimate the laziness of most people, and their willingness to follow the crowd. You think everyone will be using self custody rather than buying shares with the accounts they already have? Pension funds, retirement accounts? It's hard enough getting people to withdraw their bitcoin from coinbase.
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It's hard enough getting people to withdraw their bitcoin from coinbase. cancel
It's impossible to withdraw from your pension and buy bitcoin, unless you're 57 (in my country anyway). So yes, people will be buying the ETF, because it's the only way to make that inaccessible money work for you, no matter how hardcore a bitcoiner you are.
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I get your point. People do that now buying MicroStrategy, which is a de facto bitcoin fund, or GBTC. What I was saying is that your average person would not want to self custody even if they can.
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No i am betting that the vast majority in the short term will get their Bitcoin tied up with custodians. Fiat will "infect" Bitcoin. Maybe for our entire lives this will be the case.
But in the long term, I'm also betting that wont really matter if Bitcoin is to win like we think it will. I'm fully (maybe delusionaly) aboard the wave that we'll have the entire world in control of their own money.
But we're still in the dark ages of Bitcoin right now. How the tech developments play out to get us there I have no clue, but it's clear that UX is trending easier and easier. If people are that lazy, then Bitcoin UX will meet that level of laziness.
Have to keep in mind, everything I'm saying is assuming the conclusion: Bitcoin will hyperbitcoinize.
If that's to happen, then we'll get these other kinks worked out.
Whether or not that happens in our lifetimes is another question, but that is (one of) the end goal of bitcoin. Get the middleman out of the money. Period.
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We're on the same page regarding the future. I wish I could stop thinking about that Keynes (of all people) quote:
"In the long run we're all dead."
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Yep. Cant ignore the problems we have to solve with bitcoin now, but the good thing is that they give us more adoption points and opportunities to learn
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the old rotten financial system can coopt and control bitcoin as it did gold
No it can't. Gold is a shiny rock you can't transport a lot of safely over distance. So paper certificates were created.
If people use paper bitcoin, it's their own mistake. Using Bitcoin directly for everyday payments is absolutely possible and in reach for anyone.
Using paper bitcoin is probably even worse than using bitcoin directly since you can't pay for stuff with paper bitcoin.
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Sure bitcoin is better than gold in so many ways, and it will be harder to rehypothecate-just not hard enough to overcome human laziness.
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Yes, maybe I am underestimating humans and their stupidity. But I think bitcoin has good chances to make it obvious that you want to hold bitcoin, not paper bitcoin. Education is key.
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Agreed. I'm doing a lot of soul searching about this myself. I keep thinking about that saying "don't wish for something so hard, you might just get it." Now I know why long term hodlers say they prefer bear markets.
My concern: Do I have the balls not to sell if the price goes crazy?
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Do I have the balls not to sell if the price goes crazy?
Bitcoin is money, use it like that :) It's yours, ignore people telling you not to sell.
Imo, it depends on what you sell it for. Value is subjective.
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Under-rated comment. Btc exists so that you can buy stuff with it that you want. Talking about it like it's the reified essence of the divine Good is almost certain to lead to bad things.
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I want to continue buying with bitcoin rather than selling for fiat.
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I don’t think there’s any strong evidence that the existing system can coopt and control bitcoin.
What they can do is build a bitcoin investment vehicle that is attractive enough to the average investor and is connected well to the existing system such that the fed gets their taxes and can go after money launderers — which I realize is ineffective, but it keeps these people in their jobs and their agency funded, which is where the incentive comes from.
All this does is push up the BTC price and incentivize the Fed to ensure those funds keep bringing in the tax dollars.
It doesn’t stop us continuing to promote holding one’s own keys, and building better tools to help everyone transact safely and easily.
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Here's a hypothetical that can cause me to lose sleep:
The US is going into debt to fund a war, so begins to take advantage of its reserve currency status. Other countries realize that the US is suppressing the gold price. Nixon removes the link between gold and the dollar. Chaos ensues since the reserve currency is backed by nothing. The U.S. finds a new commodity-oil. It makes deals to ensure oil is denominated in dollars. Wars are fought to defend this link. Fast forward-the U.S. is losing control of oil's dollar link. It needs a new commodity link. Here's where bitcoin comes in. Larry Fink is well connected to the government. Bitcoin's price is already denominated in dollar terms. The most important stable coins are dollar based. The U.S. government owns a tremendous amount of bitcoin. Bitcoin can be used as the new commodity link to keep the worldwide dollar ponzi afloat.
Please poke holes in my nightmare.
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I think the main question I’d have is what maintains this petrodollar style ‘commodity link’? Oil is a physical asset that runs out as it’s used with relatively few major providers, that can be bought off (with military support in the case of the petrodollar).
In what way is bitcoin similar? In my view, it’s materially different:
- it doesn’t run out when used, mining bitcoin is only superficially similar to oil production
- miners can be in any jurisdiction. Oil (or gold) production is very centralized
- unlike oil or gold, bitcoin can cross borders in massive amounts instantly and invisibly, which makes it hard to exert physical control over
.. and therefore cannot be weaponized in the same way.
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We can point out the differences between the three all day. Most bitcoin has already been mined. A massive price appreciation would cause almost all the "diamond hands" to sell to captured entities like etfs. Your points about cross border payments, centralized mining, etc are all valid. It's just that after the confiscation it will be quibbling about crumbs (newly mined bitcoin)
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Confiscation is about the only valid method I see. But that’s difficult to imagine in todays world - it’s very different from the one in which it was achieved in the USA with gold.
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I'm sorry. I shouldn't have used that term. I didn't mean literal confiscation. I meant basically bribing all the self custody holders like us with an enormous price appreciation. In mafia terms-make us an offer we can't refuse.
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Ah, ok.
It just seems to me that the US holding some amount of real BTC, while supporting Bitcoin investment vehicles (even if ‘paper’) further legitimizes bitcoin as a commodity and increases the market cap , and in turn helps stabilize its value in time.
I suppose it might bolster the dollar at least for some time, but I wouldn’t be too concerned about that personally. Is that a nightmare to you or do you foresee the dollar somehow remaining perennially due to this new scheme of the government and Blackrock? If so, I’m still unclear as to precisely how that will be achieved.
It doesn’t stop us holding it and transacting with it, ultimately, and anything that fails to do that is really supporting it.
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Despite everything I'm saying I'm still buying as much bitcoin as I can. I just think it won't be smooth sailing.