275 sats \ 4 replies \ @gabybaby 30 Oct 2023 \ parent \ on: Meta Econ Takeover Day 13 meta
That car loan issue exists in some form or another all over the credit industry just by virtue of how many middlemen exist between the Fed and the end users. Having worked in credit risk for a personal lending startup, I got to see this dynamic firsthand and was just gobsmacked by how dumb it is in practice. Everyone along the way is leveraged to varying degrees and the health of that system is only as strong as the weakest link.
I agree that a lot of people are still drinking the Kool-Aid, but reality just has a habit of not caring at some point, especially when fiat money is fake and energy demand is very much not. So, I'm optimistic that eventually the stupidity will work its way out of the system.
fiat money is fake and energy demand is very much not
I wonder how much the huge natural gas shortage helped prop up the clean energy bubble. Whenever oil prices return to normal (or whatever the new normal is going to be) it might make the picture a bit more clear. Right now, wind and solar don't look that much worse, depending on which rigged metrics people use.
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It also depends which use cases we're talking about. For dependable electricity generation, I'm sure that wind/solar are very competitive in certain geographic regions (assuming power lines and infra are in place).
More importantly, I think, are the uses of energy that go into logistics/transportation and emergency (backup) power generation. And there's just no substitute for oil and natural gas there. They just have such astounding advantages in terms of energy density, portability, etc. that anyone claiming otherwise is a paid shill and/or a charlatan.
I personally subscribe to Lyn Alden's view on the oil market over the next 5-10 years and think there'll be a structural bull run just due to limited capex in the past 15 years. The world isn't going to run out of oil just yet and if clean energy sources can't compete with oil in a world with elevated fossil fuel prices, then it doesn't deserve to be shilled as ridiculously as it is today.
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I'm sure that wind/solar are very competitive in certain geographic regions
It's more that they can be made to look competitive. By focusing on marginal costs, all the issues with intermittency, grid design, base load, and regional suitability can be papered over.
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Yeah couldn't agree more with that characterization, it's a very, very deceptive use of data and statistics. Go figure!
While the clown world continues arguing about these manipulated statistics I'll just keep quietly investing based on what I see with my own two eyes and what I interpret from the data independently.
Thanks for the great discussion, I really enjoyed it. Awesome start to my Monday evening. Cheers!
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