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420 sats \ 7 replies \ @siggy47 1 Nov 2023 \ parent \ on: _Broken Money_ book club, part 3 bitcoin
The transition will be ugly if the fiat powers gradually decay as opposed to a smash bang apocalypse. El Salvador isn't far from the U.S. southern border.
Can you say more about this? How do you imagine a "gradual decay" playing out, vs a sudden apocalypse?
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Well, I guess we could use current events as an example. The U.S. treasury announced today that they would be changing the bond auctioning schedule to absorb the maturing bonds while requiring more war funding "for our security." There has been a gradual lessening of demand for these bonds worldwide, causing higher yields. Since the dollar is the world reserve currency, it still benefits from "flight to safety" trades from all the other much worse fiat currencies. This situation can drag on for a while as the dollar is gradually debased by worsening inflation.
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It seems to me that this would actually be better (in the sense of less apocalyptic human tragedy) than a complete collapse, though? You can imagine people in the world slowly coming online to the ways money needs to change, and btc's potential role in that.
(And surely there would be some other changes, too, that are hard to foresee right now; I give zero percent probability to a future where all the powers of the world say: Okay, well that fiat thing has played out, time to shift over to bitcoin!)
Is your opinion that a "rip the band-aid off" situation would be better, ultimately, despite short-term pain? Or maybe I misunderstand you.
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I deleted my prior response. I was trying to multitask-deal with a work crisis while replying. I must learn never to let work get in the way of posting on SN.
Anyway, here's what I was trying to say:
I'm 100 percent in agreement with you. The human tragedy would be horrific. Also, as you point out, it's very unlikely. There are some people who anticipate a sudden collapse, but I don't.
My fear is that in this likely gradual scenario, bitcoin standard first mover nations may suffer violence from the dying fiat states in a futile attempt to keep the system alive. This would probably not be the case with an apocalypse, but overall human suffering would be tragic.
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Priorities, Siggy. Also, you probably just wanted 152 more sats from me, you scammer.
The scenario you present seems plausible. One thing I'm noodling on, wrt the "dying fiat nation vs fledgling btc nation" is: are there correlates with the factors that would result in a dying fiat nation that might preclude them struggling against the fledgling btc nation? Obviously anything is possible, and it's very easy to tell yourself a feel-good story about how btc's triumph will be sudden and glorious and everything will be amazing thereafter. So I'm trying not to delude myself about things working out.
But in the same way that people / places that are doing well are generally socially progressive (e.g., less racist, less xenophobic, friendlier, higher trust, etc) then is it possible that btc adoption would be a sign of generally-having-your-shit-together in a manner that could short-circuit these kinds of hostilities?
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I tried to make up for my transparent scam. Damn. Your scenario would be great. Some people might see it as an overly touchy feely utopian take, but the incentives align. I'm listening to Erik Cason on WBD. It seems apropos as he discuses Satoshi's ethical unselfishness.
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