2222 sats \ 7 replies \ @orthwyrm 7 Nov 2023 \ on: Some thoughts on the game theory that results from btc wealth bitcoin
This is why I eventually went with a multi-sig setup. Even under duress, it's simply not possible for me to forfeit my funds easily. The attacker would have to travel to several guarded locations and somehow not arouse suspicion.
You paint a future where Bitcoin has appreciated dramatically. Allow me to add some further details: The legacy financial system has collapsed, the no-coiner majority is unimaginably salty about Bitcoin's success, and most exchanges have had their KYC details breached and published all over the darkweb. Attacks on Bitcoiners are cheered on and encouraged.
Do you think your funds are secure in that scenario?
That's the benchmark I set for myself. Don't plan for today, plan for 5-10 years from now. If you're not constantly reviewing your security practices, you are not nearly bullish enough on Bitcoin. It should scare the shit out of you, actually.
This is exactly the scenario why I don’t want multisig.
First, gov’t will go after Casa or whoever and take control of those keys.
Second, do you think someone threatening your life will take “sorry, multisig” for an answer? No, they’ll insist you ultimately control those coins somehow, which is in fact correct.
reply
I don't personally use Casa, Nunchuk, etc. for those reasons.
Second, do you think someone threatening your life will take “sorry, multisig” for an answer? No, they’ll insist you ultimately control those coins somehow, which is in fact correct.
This is a problem for any backup scheme, but at least with multi-sig the attacker has to travel to different locations to access those keys. That's a major impedence -- the longer you are held hostage, the more chances you have to escape / alert authorities / people realise you are missing / etc. Also in my case, the keys are guarded such that people would notice attackers trying to access them.
Is it flawless? Nope. No system is perfect, and a highly sophisticated actor or government could break it. Thankfully I'm not rich enough to be worth the effort.
But which setup are you thinking of that's more robust against physical attacks? Multisig is not without its pitfalls, but I can't see a scenario where a single-sig setup helps you more against $5 wrenches.
reply
Agreed. The crucial thing is that you are tying yourself to the mast, as it were, and introducing actual difficulties that prevent you yourself from accessing your stash in a manner that is so friction-full that it makes villainy too expensive / too difficult to bother with, given the other factors.
If this is a credible system -- meaning, it's the normal state of affairs -- then people don't bother trying to casually compromise it, and only really high-value targets get targeted. If it's not normative, then normal people become attractive honeypots. That's why the norms around this stuff matter.
reply
Best protection is anonymity. But in your scenario, which I fear is too likely, anonymity is broken, and all KYC purchases are leaked. The only remaining option, then, is leaving for a safer jurisdiction where property rights are respected and enforced. A country that welcomes bitcoiners and protects them, in exchange for their spending their wealth there.
The main hitch in leaving, as I see it, will be selling any real estate / large assets you own, ahead of the major bitcoin price appreciation. Otherwise you may be forced to abandon those. I hope this dark scenario can be avoided, and it should, if the game theory of different countries plays out with all of them vying to retain and attract bitcoiners.
The main hitch in leaving, as I see it, will be selling any real estate / large assets you own, ahead of the major bitcoin price appreciation. Otherwise you may be forced to abandon those. I hope this dark scenario can be avoided, and it should, if the game theory of different countries plays out with all of them vying to retain and attract bitcoiners.
reply
You don't even need multisig to do this, Bip39 encryption and a couple of vaults in different countries and a couple of random factors.
Crims will take the lowest hanging fruit.... Also if you have fear just spend your bitcoin!
reply
Urgh, that's bleak. But even better from the PoV of gaming this out, thank you.
I think an under-appreciated thing so far is how important it is that these security measures / procedures become so normative that villains don't even consider this flavor of villainy. Aside from Ocean's 12, nobody is going to steal all the gold from the Fed or whatever. There is plausible deterrence around that course of action.
I would like expectations driven by social norms to help keep my family safe.
reply
Another reason to relocate to a (former) 3rd world country.
reply