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391 sats \ 24 replies \ @grayruby 16 Nov 2023 \ on: Stacker Sports - Meta Meta Takeover Takeover - Degenerate Corner meta
I thought we broke them last week after a big winning week when I did not see NFL odds for a few days.
Lions 500 sats
Titans 500 sats
Steelers 500 sats
Dolphins 1000 sats
49ers 2000 sats
Rams 500 sats
Chiefs 500 sats
You got some pretty wild odds. Definitely very different now.
Stacker should build some P2P betting tooling that meets the degen need to wager microsats
Could potentially invite some unwanted attention from govt but it would be great to have btc betting / fantasy football / etc with P2P pools…even if oracles used for payout was just espn
Cc @koob
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It's something that's been discussed. I've worked with @ekzyis a bit on potential models with the intention of applying it to prediction markets more broadly.
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yes, i was very bad at time management the past weeks or months.
i hope this gets better now and i think i can get a first MVP of delphi.market out this month - fingers crossed.
(had to rewrite a lot of code since i realized, i can't just wing the frontend using raw HTML and CSS, lol.
I am using Vue 3 now.)
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Awesome!
We'll keep cultivating demand amongst the degenerates in the meantime.
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it's going to be binary markets only at first however
so literally just "Will X happen?" and you can buy YES or NO shares.
If you want to buy YES shares, someone else needs to buy the same number of NO shares. The price only differs. So if I think X is going to happen with a chance of 90%, I would buy YES shares for 90 sats each since I'll get 100 sats per share on expiry if I win. So a profit of 10 sats per share.
This means someone else needs to buy the same number of NO shares but for a price of 10 sats each. They'll win 90 sats per share.
A market evolves since you'll be able to sell your shares to others (at a different price you bought them). So you could sell X of your YES shares to someone else at 95 sats per share and exit the market with a profit of 5 sats per share before the market concludes.
If I did the math right, the market should stay solvent in any of such cases.
I also intend to use HODL invoices for these trades. So your sats for buying shares will only be sent if there is actually a counterparty available.
Also, I'll hold the funds. So it's going to be fully custodial. I'll ship on regtest first until I am super sure there are no bugs - at least no critical ones.
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Looking forward to it
How do events get originated?
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Oh, great question, forgot to mention some things around that: You can simply create ones but I'm wondering if they should be approved by me first since if two parties can't agree on the outcome of the event, I'll have to step in as arbiter of truth. If the event is not easily verifiable, it's going to be hard.
I'm also thinking about requiring a bond which the party will lose that I decided has lost if the parties don't achieve consensus. So there is incentive to be honest since hopefully, I'll be able to tell who is the real winner easily anyway.
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That oracle issue is tricky. It certainly doesn't seem like manually doing it would scale very well.
Essentially instituting a fee for disagreeing, gets you into a very interesting area of experimental economics. There are lots of circumstances where people are willing to pay their own money to make someone else lose theirs. As an irrational sports fan myself, I can imagine being willing to pay the fee to make sure someone didn't win a big reward (in certain circumstances).
That said, the bond approach is generally considered to be the incentive compatible approach.
there, i said it. this month MVP @ekzyis' prediction market, lol
@remindme 1st December 2023
(no, @remindme doesn't exist yet. but this would be a good use case for it)
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I also might have messed up adding the early bonus on manually. I took the listed odds and doubled the profit: i.e. posted odds of 1.65 become true odds of 2.3. I'm pretty sure that's how it works.
Are you nervous about the Lions?
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It does feel like a trap game. It's a divisional game. But they have been playing well so I think they will pull it out.
I don't actually think the Rams will win but that's the outcome I want so I am betting it.
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I thought about taking the Bears for those reasons, but the odds weren't where I wanted them to be.
I was also tempted to take the Buc's. They've been pretty feisty this season, but I expect the 49ers to pretty much wreck everyone the rest of the way.
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I don't know if they will wreck everyone. They have Seahawks in seattle on a short week next week, then Eagles in Philly, and then Seahawks back at home so they need this win to give them some leeway and not have to win all 3 of those games.
They will beat the Buccs.
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Ok, Philly in Philly is tough, but I don't think the Seahawks are on their level.
I hadn't looked at their schedule. I was just thinking that they know they already lost too many winnable games and aren't going to take any of these for granted.
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Agree but Seahawks in Seattle on a short week is a tough game regardless. They should win that game but they can't beat themselves.
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