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1453 sats \ 34 comments \ @Undisciplined 16 Nov 2023 meta

They finally got the NFL games up at FreeBitcoin. They also have Grand Prix and something called "soccer", for our more cosmopolitan degenerates, but those aren't for me.

I came out ahead last week, thanks to the leadership of new Raiders HC Antonio Pierce.

Here are the picks I just made, along with their current approximate odds:

Lions 2.5 (I'm sure the odds will adjust, but if they're even right now I'm jumping on the Lions.)
Jags 2.6 (I was expecting to take the Titans as underdogs, but I liked these odds.)
Steelers 2.3 (No idea what to make of this game, but the Steelers seem to win a lot)
Raiders 6.0 (On our way to 12-5, baby!)
49ers 1.6 (Not great, but do the Buc's have a shot)
Seahawks 5.3 (That will probably end up lower)
Chiefs 5.6 (I'm pretty sure those are gonna go down)

Remember that the odds aren't fixed, even after you bet. Payouts depend on how much was laid on each team.

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553 sats \ 1 reply \ @HardMoney 16 Nov 2023

Too bad they don’t have a lightning deposit option. Tried to deposit 50k sats and fees were like 30k

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 16 Nov 2023

Yeah, you should probably pass on that.

I wasn't paying attention when I made my initial deposit there, because it was very early in my bitcoin journey. Fortunately, I was depositing something like 300k sats, so the fee wasn't as absurd.

494 sats \ 4 replies \ @BlokchainB 16 Nov 2023

Man this site just screams scammy to me

391 sats \ 1 reply \ @HardMoney 17 Nov 2023

Lol 4% yield payout haha. Definitely a ponzi

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 17 Nov 2023

You're aware that casinos give out all kinds of free crap to get people to show up, right?

It might be a Ponzi scheme or it might just be an online casino that will drop that particular offer if it no longer suits them.

101 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 16 Nov 2023

I know, right? It looks awful and I categorically do not vouch for it. Only true degenerates should venture forth.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 16 Nov 2023

Yes

391 sats \ 1 reply \ @gnilma 17 Nov 2023

Just started a bet with my son on the Nets and Heat game, halfway through the 2nd quarter. We are going ice skating now and the loser must buy the winner the snack of their choosing from the vending machine at the rink. I took the Heat and he took the Nets. It seems like a close game and I hope I win. Not very confident in this one though.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 17 Nov 2023

It was a pretty good game even though it got away from the Nets. The Heat are rounding into form.

391 sats \ 24 replies \ @grayruby 16 Nov 2023

I thought we broke them last week after a big winning week when I did not see NFL odds for a few days.

Lions 500 sats Titans 500 sats Steelers 500 sats Dolphins 1000 sats 49ers 2000 sats Rams 500 sats Chiefs 500 sats

You got some pretty wild odds. Definitely very different now.

441 sats \ 17 replies \ @HardMoney 17 Nov 2023

Stacker should build some P2P betting tooling that meets the degen need to wager microsats

Could potentially invite some unwanted attention from govt but it would be great to have btc betting / fantasy football / etc with P2P pools…even if oracles used for payout was just espn

Cc @koob

461 sats \ 16 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 17 Nov 2023

It's something that's been discussed. I've worked with @ekzyis a bit on potential models with the intention of applying it to prediction markets more broadly.

441 sats \ 15 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

yes, i was very bad at time management the past weeks or months.

i hope this gets better now and i think i can get a first MVP of delphi.market out this month - fingers crossed.

(had to rewrite a lot of code since i realized, i can't just wing the frontend using raw HTML and CSS, lol. I am using Vue 3 now.)

461 sats \ 13 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 17 Nov 2023

Awesome!

We'll keep cultivating demand amongst the degenerates in the meantime.

260 sats \ 12 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

it's going to be binary markets only at first however

so literally just "Will X happen?" and you can buy YES or NO shares.

If you want to buy YES shares, someone else needs to buy the same number of NO shares. The price only differs. So if I think X is going to happen with a chance of 90%, I would buy YES shares for 90 sats each since I'll get 100 sats per share on expiry if I win. So a profit of 10 sats per share.

This means someone else needs to buy the same number of NO shares but for a price of 10 sats each. They'll win 90 sats per share.

A market evolves since you'll be able to sell your shares to others (at a different price you bought them). So you could sell X of your YES shares to someone else at 95 sats per share and exit the market with a profit of 5 sats per share before the market concludes.

If I did the math right, the market should stay solvent in any of such cases.

I also intend to use HODL invoices for these trades. So your sats for buying shares will only be sent if there is actually a counterparty available.

Also, I'll hold the funds. So it's going to be fully custodial. I'll ship on regtest first until I am super sure there are no bugs - at least no critical ones.

150 sats \ 11 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 17 Nov 2023

Looking forward to it

How do events get originated?

250 sats \ 10 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

Oh, great question, forgot to mention some things around that: You can simply create ones but I'm wondering if they should be approved by me first since if two parties can't agree on the outcome of the event, I'll have to step in as arbiter of truth. If the event is not easily verifiable, it's going to be hard.

I'm also thinking about requiring a bond which the party will lose that I decided has lost if the parties don't achieve consensus. So there is incentive to be honest since hopefully, I'll be able to tell who is the real winner easily anyway.

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50 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

there, i said it. this month MVP @ekzyis' prediction market, lol

@remindme 1st December 2023

(no, @remindme doesn't exist yet. but this would be a good use case for it)

50 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 16 Nov 2023

I also might have messed up adding the early bonus on manually. I took the listed odds and doubled the profit: i.e. posted odds of 1.65 become true odds of 2.3. I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

Are you nervous about the Lions?

391 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 16 Nov 2023

It does feel like a trap game. It's a divisional game. But they have been playing well so I think they will pull it out.

I don't actually think the Rams will win but that's the outcome I want so I am betting it.

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 16 Nov 2023

I thought about taking the Bears for those reasons, but the odds weren't where I wanted them to be.

I was also tempted to take the Buc's. They've been pretty feisty this season, but I expect the 49ers to pretty much wreck everyone the rest of the way.

620 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 16 Nov 2023

I don't know if they will wreck everyone. They have Seahawks in seattle on a short week next week, then Eagles in Philly, and then Seahawks back at home so they need this win to give them some leeway and not have to win all 3 of those games.

They will beat the Buccs.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 16 Nov 2023

Ok, Philly in Philly is tough, but I don't think the Seahawks are on their level.

I hadn't looked at their schedule. I was just thinking that they know they already lost too many winnable games and aren't going to take any of these for granted.

391 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 16 Nov 2023

Agree but Seahawks in Seattle on a short week is a tough game regardless. They should win that game but they can't beat themselves.