reply on: Stacker Saloon \ stacker news

556 sats \ 11 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023 \ on: Stacker Saloon

Do people want to bet if I'll be able to release a MVP of delphi.market until 1st December 2023?

We could make a prediction market about my prediction market 👀

I need to write down the features that should be included in this MVP first though

I'm willing to bet 50k sats that I'll be able to do it. See how confident I am. lol

142 sats \ 1 reply \ @elvismercury 17 Nov 2023

Yeah more information needed bro.

But I would almost certainly take the bet just to support you and prod you a little bit. :)

346 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

I'll try to get some frontend mockups for the individual pages. Shouldn't be too many. And add some explanation what you should be able to do on every page (functionality).

Also helps me to reduce feature creep :)

But I would almost certainly take the bet just to support you and prod you a little bit. :)

Appreciated :) I see this more as something symbolic. Also, would be interesting what kind of bets people would be willing to take. Bet 1 sat to win 100 sats? So 100x profit? This would mean they are really confident in me, lol

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

Oh, btw, related thread: #319004

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitcointerest 17 Nov 2023

Lol. No bet. My sats are staying where they belong: under my mattress.

63 sats \ 6 replies \ @nemo 17 Nov 2023

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242 sats \ 5 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

The funny thing is, in a prediction market, I could also say how much I expect to win per share.

So it could be that I'm willing to lose 50k sats but only if I can win 100k sats.

This would mean I think the odds are 2:1, so just 33% confidence.

(I hope this is right, I sometimes still get confused with all these transformations between confidence, price per share, odds etc., lol)

428 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 17 Nov 2023

I think it largely gets confusing because "win" is used in two different ways.

In your example, winning 100k on a 50k bet means you walk away with 150k,

Sometimes, though, winning 100k just means that's what you walk away with, so that would be 1:1 odds on a 50k wager.

401 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

you're right. i knew it wasn't well defined but i was too lazy to distinguish, lol

how would you say it? to gain 100k? or just "to make 100k profit"?

428 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 17 Nov 2023

I would probably say "gain", but I'm not aware of there being any consensus on this terminology.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @nemo 17 Nov 2023

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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

software seems to be never done though :)