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The funny thing is, in a prediction market, I could also say how much I expect to win per share.

So it could be that I'm willing to lose 50k sats but only if I can win 100k sats.

This would mean I think the odds are 2:1, so just 33% confidence.

(I hope this is right, I sometimes still get confused with all these transformations between confidence, price per share, odds etc., lol)

I think it largely gets confusing because "win" is used in two different ways.

In your example, winning 100k on a 50k bet means you walk away with 150k,

Sometimes, though, winning 100k just means that's what you walk away with, so that would be 1:1 odds on a 50k wager.

you're right. i knew it wasn't well defined but i was too lazy to distinguish, lol

how would you say it? to gain 100k? or just "to make 100k profit"?

I would probably say "gain", but I'm not aware of there being any consensus on this terminology.

deleted by author

software seems to be never done though :)