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94 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 18 Nov 2023 \ on: Preparing for an Inflationary Soft Landing bitcoin
This is a Swan Market Update. I think the title is perhaps intentionally misleading, since the report notes that mentions of a "soft landing" in the press previously have spiked to these levels only twice : before the dot com crash and before the 2008 Financial Crisis. The main thrust of the report is to condlsider the possibility that we may experience an inflationary recession, which used to be described as stagflation. Lyn Alden has raised the possibility that the U.S. may respond as an emerging market typically would, which means we can expect:
Excessive deficit spending
Rising bond yields
Currency debasement
Elevated inflation
Hot nominal growth, low real growth
Highly politicized monetary and fiscal policymaking
Weakening rule of law
The upshot? It's good news for bitcoin and inflationary assets, bad news for bonds.
So, more of the same -- excessive deficit spending (like it's going out of style, print print print!), elevated inflation, low real growth, highly politicized monetary and fiscal policymaking, weakening rule of law...
Shit, it's like they're just describing what I'm witnessing happen around here, pretty much in real time.
I think that most of us by now have either come around to the accepting the fact, or are getting close to being at that "acceptance" point, that we're living through the collapse of the American empire. By extension, much of Europe/the EU is going through the same thing due to their relationship/connections with the US.
I'm not even sure who in their right minds, like what countries out there, are even purchasing bonds from the US anymore. Like, we're over 30-something trillion in debt, rising at a rate faster than we can ever mathematically pay back, it's outgrown GDP like crazy and GDP is a flawed metric to begin with, since it's heavily inflated from all of the wasteful government spending that gets included in the figures.
In short: we're so fucked. In addition to stocking up on Bitcoin, I've been keeping a personal stack of some small amounts of physical gold and silver, as well as weaponry, ammunition and various supplies. Not at the point yet to where I think it's dire enough to start recommending everyone go into full-on "crazy prepper mode" or whatever, but, shit is getting pretty damn dire lately. I believe we're really just one or two major or sudden crisis style events from happening which will be enough to trigger events into motion that could result in anything ranging from another round of extended, widespread civil unrest/looting/rioting like we saw during 2020-21, all the way to small scale urban warfare or worse.
I pray it doesn't get there, but people are barely holding on financially in much of the country, and out government continues allowing millions of migrants to come in illegally over the border every single month, flooding American cities and for the first time I'm (finally!) starting to see dumb-ass NPC normies who have never thought about any of this before, starting to talk about it all the time, and they are angry. When shit really hits the fan, it is going to get ugly...and sadly I doubt there's anything we can do to stop it, this train has been in motion for a long time.
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Great insights!
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