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Assassination markets would kickstart the most serious and forceful opposition to bitcoin, and all of crypto, that have ever happened to date. And also, would be a great evil in the world. So please, not that one.
From a profit perspective, seems like sports betting could really be a killer app. Although would that also introduce forceful and well-funded opposition on all fronts? I'm not sure.
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yeah, i agree. just wanted to mention them to make people aware of the downsides of prediction markets. it's not all shiny
you also need to be aware how easy a prediction market is to game. if it's easy to game, you essentially buy influence.
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Perhaps it could be a more general removed from office prediction, without specifying the particular method.
I am curious about how strong the legal opposition will be to sports betting. It obviously undermines an enormous industry.
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From a profit perspective, seems like sports betting could really be a killer app. Although would that also introduce forceful and well-funded opposition on all fronts? I'm not sure.
oh yeah, forgot the most discussed use case on SN, lol
also not sure. people already talk about corruption in sport games. would prediction markets make it a lot worse? potentially, since the rewards for corruption can be a lot higher. i guess it depends on how much corruption currently costs.
- Inflation (real and wonky donkey version)
- Unemployment figures
- Next round of stimulus
- Immigration & population size
- Sats per byte
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Interest rates would be a good and potentially lucrative one.
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Sats per byte
ohhh, i like! mempool prediction markets
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These are good. I was thinking various commodity or asset prices, as well.
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I am not interested into gambling with my sats.
Better add that feature with @remindme
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it's not gambling if you know what you're doing :)
also, you don't have to participate to gain value from prediction markets. prediction markets essentially expose insider information, since anyone with insider information can get rewarded for exposing it:
Similarly, insider trading is highly regulated in most countries, and there is a fundamental misunderstanding of the market and its purpose. A trader in the prediction market makes money if he has information that is not publicly available (and therefore not yet included in the price). Only then can they move the price correctly, and only then does the price contain relevant information. In both prediction markets (including equities as a special case of prediction markets) and decision markets, it is the insider information that we want. The insider’s “disproportionate profit” is actually a good deal for the society – someone sells us information and makes money on it. A well set up prediction market will ensure that the information we buy has a higher value – that is, for example, we make a much better decision than the price we pay for the information. And a well-functioning prediction market attracts and supports insiders who have the best information. At the same time, the presence of money and market prices provides skin in the game. It’s not “opinion over coffee” or the opinion of an analyst in the media.
but i wasn't talking about adding prediction markets to SN any time soon, anyway.
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<insert meme are the same picture>
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deleted by author
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😂😂😂😂
you are right, I was lazy
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deleted by author
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I was busy doing this one
#323165
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prediction markets about the death of people (assassination markets)