Meta Econ Takeover Day 34 \ stacker news ~meta

6292 sats \ 15 comments \ @Undisciplined 20 Nov 2023 meta

I want to escalate the social pressure on @ekzyis to make some progress on his prediction markets website. It's a very neat idea and fills a very valuable niche in the bitcoin/lightning ecosystem. As far as I know, the main player providing that service right now is freebitcoin. If you followed that link, you can immediately appreciate how much room there is for improvement.

I'm most excited about sports and politics predictions, personally. There are other ideas being kicked around in the saloon today that are quite exciting too: I'm particularly drawn to being able to make predictions about news stories (perhaps whether something turns out to be a hoax) and court cases.

What kinds of prediction markets are other people excited about?

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2082 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 20 Nov 2023

I want to be the first investor in @ekzyis prediction market.

We definitely need a prediction market for how many times Peter Schiff and Jim Cramer are going to tell you to sell your Bitcoin during the 18 months following the halving.

1088 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek 20 Nov 2023

you can "invest" by providing liquidity :)

i don't want to think about making this more serious than just a side project / experiment for how prediction markets on lightning / SN could work - at least for now.

We definitely need a prediction market for how many times Peter Schiff and Jim Cramer are going to tell you to sell your Bitcoin during the 18 months following the halving.

and lol, yeah, I see, fun times ahead!

2223 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 20 Nov 2023

You have yourself a deal!

1322 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 20 Nov 2023

The mania and the madness are both about to run wild...

2493 sats \ 8 replies \ @ek 20 Nov 2023

I want to escalate the social pressure on @ekzyis to make some progress on his prediction markets website.

lol, I read that first as "I want to deescalate the pressure" and thought: Aww, that's nice

But no, pressure me harder! I want to see this come to live so much, too.

It's embarrassing how long it already took me but more embarrassing that there isn't already something out there by someone else. But at the same time, every time I see someone ask for it and people respond with links, I dread that my chance has passed, lol

Current state: video

My TODO list (the stuff inside[] is optional for MVP imo):

show order book
match orders
trading of shares
[show volume]
[nostr login - how many people don't like LNURL-auth?]
show probability chart
implement market settlement + withdrawal
run signet LND in prod (that's why you can't create markets on delphi.market)
error messages
PWA [+ push notifications for order updates]
[integrate plausible.io]
[SSR]
[gRPC API]
[automated market maker via gRPC - or I'll just provide liquidity manually]

Btw, really don't expect a lot for the MVP. It should be extremely simple but you should be able to login, create a market, buy shares, trade shares and settle trades by selecting the event outcome and then withdraw your sats.

Maybe I won't include bonds and forced settlement in the cases where parties don't agree on the outcome in the MVP.

6045 sats \ 2 replies \ @nym 23 Nov 2023

Start with the bare minimum, test, get feedback, and iterate. Ensure the interface is clean and intuitive. Given the nature, prioritize security from the start. Keep an eye on the system’s performance, especially the order matching and real-time updates. Don't stress about others possibly having similar ideas. Execution is key, and your unique approach matters. Perfection can be the enemy of progress. Aim for a functional MVP first, then refine

473 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 23 Nov 2023

Thanks for the feedback, much appreciated!

Don't stress about others possibly having similar ideas. Execution is key, and your unique approach matters.

Especially this, I tend to get super FOMO reading about others having similar ideas, lol

And then I get sad that I didn't work on it for so long: "I deserve to miss out"

I have accepted that this might just be an experiment. But with this approach:

Start with the bare minimum, test, get feedback, and iterate.

it might actually end up as something more than "just an experiment" :)

Hopefully not as a speedrun into federal prison haha

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @linda024352 24 Nov 2023

He practically has to go for what he wants without looking at who is coming after him. It's got to go all or nothing

2151 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury 20 Nov 2023

This could be one of those things that it starts as you fucking around, and in five years you own an island, you're on the cover of Time magazine, and also the FBI's most wanted.

213 sats \ 0 replies \ @nemo 20 Nov 2023

deleted by author

515 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 20 Nov 2023

It's up to us to make it so.

1110 sats \ 1 reply \ @davidw 20 Nov 2023

Coming along really nicely. Sweet site @ekzyis. Looking forward to the day it’s time to ‘stress test’.

659 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 21 Nov 2023

Thanks :)

Looking forward to the day it’s time to ‘stress test’.

Soon™ (this month)

989 sats \ 1 reply \ @gnilma 20 Nov 2023

So basically a full blown gambling site using sats? Sounds fun to me.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @BitcoinIsTheFuture 21 Nov 2023