The Bank of Japan disclosed an unprecedented surge in unrealized losses on its Japanese government bond holdings, reaching a staggering 10.5 trillion yen ($71.2 billion) by the close of September. This unsettling development marks the third consecutive half-year paper loss on JGBs, standing as the largest since the adoption of the current valuation method in 2004. Notably surpassing the prior record set in September 2022, this fiscal downturn underscores the challenges faced by the central bank in navigating the evolving landscape of rising yields.
As the BOJ grapples with these substantial losses, questions arise about the potential repercussions on currency markets and interest rates. Lawmakers closely scrutinize the central bank's financial stability, especially as it explores exit strategies from its massive easing program. The recent adjustments to its yield curve control policy in July, allowing long-term bond yields to rise as high as 1%, reflect the BOJ's efforts to adapt to changing global interest rate trends.
Despite the assurances from Governor Kazuo Ueda that these losses would not impede policy execution, the market remains watchful. Ueda's commitment to addressing potential unrealized losses through increased income via seigniorage provides insight into the bank's strategic response to future challenges.
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How do we close a monetary black hole?
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10.5 trillion in losses? That is insne.
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It's the same with all the cb. At a point they need to grow their balance sheets by inflating their assets again (bonds or gold)
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So, the reason no one is freaking out is based on the assumption interest rates will be cut in 24 and head downwards again. Thus, as you say, inflating their bond assets bought via QE. And eradicating the losses. But if inflation heads upwards again, cutting interest rates and more QE wont be an option... And the losses will materialise (already happening with the BOE which is selling bonds, at a loss, back into the Gilts market). Hell of a dicey strategy. Maybe our regulators could have a word about managing risks?!...😀
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They are trying to navigate between inflation and deflation now to avoid a collapse to one of both extremes. Let's see what happens
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Fed is in the same boat. It's like a non-issue, somehow. Inertia and a complacent population I guess. Just think if people knew and all opted out. It would only take a small percentage. Until that day comes we are stuck in clown world.
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And clown world is getting freaky... oh man
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Japan has been on the same path since the 90s. Do you think there really is going to be a fundamental change now? The powers that be seem to see a relatively strong yen as a sin.
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They changed personal in the BoJ. I am following them closely and the tone towards inflation changed. It depends who moves or blinks first: the ECB/BoE or the BoJ
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Eso no es bueno
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