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497 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury OP 30 Nov 2023 \ parent \ on: Cycles and inevitability bitcoin
The way you put it makes me think there's cycles within cycles: the macro cycle that I described, and the micro-cycles you described within the hearts of each [pre] bitcoiner. Like epicycles, maybe, that interact in complex ways with the larger rhythms of the world.
I didn't mean to imply otherwise -- I, too, think the cycles are probably, on net, accelerents of global adoption. I think of it like dandelions: there's some accrual, then someone stomps on the dandelion, and the seeds go airborne. There's a period where it looks like all is ruined, but a bunch of the seeds take root, and now there are twenty dandelions.
Exactly. In time terms, we’re probably looking at 4 year cycles within a 16 year cycle, within a ~80 year cycle. But as we layer technologies on top of one another, the cycles for new technologies arguably get shorter in length.
Perhaps previously those would have been 8 year cycles within a 32 year cycle (for example: for gold that’s likely more accurate).
And in the future we’ll have adoption cycles that look like yearly cycles within a 4 year macro cycle.
In some ways I don’t think we are prepared for the pace of innovation to come in the future. Either we go back to cavemen living in the wilderness and are set back a century…or we start operating and innovating at a new level of productivity. A step-change. It’s only natural in that latter scenario for us to draw the conclusion that cycles get compressed if productivity gains also do drastically.
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It's interesting to think about decreasing micro cycle times by the resources that are available.
In 2010 there were certain resources, certain ideas dominate the narrative; certain amount of ambient flow of discussion is happening. In 2023 all of these are profoundly different -- it's one thing to assemble your understanding from bitcointalk, it's another to hear it being discussed publicly, as part of his platform, by a Presidential candidate. The elements of btc understanding start with very different intellectual and cultural capital formations.
This evolution in the ideaspace seems super important. I bet it radically changes the aspects of the micro-cycles within a single person.