reply on: Lightning Prediction Market MVP - delphi.market \ stacker news ~bitcoin

3475 sats \ 2 replies \ @TonyGiorgio 4 Dec 2023 \ on: Lightning Prediction Market MVP - delphi.market bitcoin

The terminology really confuses me. I matched someone's order but TBH, I'm not really sure what side I've taken or how to understand the "how sure are you" number and how it changes things. When I pick "no" and then say I'm "0.01 sure", it says I might get a lot of money, so like, yeah ofc I'll do that, I won't lose much to win that and I wasn't sure anyways. Also not sure why there's a bunch of "2 shares" stuff, are you substituting the word "to" for 2?

Perhaps remove the sure part to better that UX and just make it 50/50? Or let the markets average out the spread and enforce that and don't let users deviate from it by a certain amount? Not sure, but it's kind of hard to understand the sides of it. Also not sure what to do next, I guess wait until the end of the week. I didn't want to read any of the wall of text so sorry if that's answered lol.

I know it's early but those are my initial impressions. Cool to see though.

1701 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 4 Dec 2023

The terminology really confuses me. I matched someone's order but TBH, I'm not really sure what side I've taken or how to understand the "how sure are you" number and how it changes things. When I pick "no" and then say I'm "0.01 sure", it says I might get a lot of money, so like, yeah ofc I'll do that, I won't lose much to win that and I wasn't sure anyways.

Thanks for the feedback and testing it out!

I agree it's confusing and still needs improvement. I maybe need to explain prediction markets in general better. I only linked to this YT video in /about because I was too lazy to go in depth, haha. I think I'll sprinkle some help icons around and explain stuff which might not be easy to understand for someone with not much knowledge about prediction markets. And more stuff regarding this. I shouldn't forget how hard it was for me to grasp how prediction markets work.

I also used how sure are you? to make it more "intuitive" how the price is created. If you're very sure, you would pay a lot to gain a little. And the higher your price, the lower the amount the counter party has to bet against you so it's more likely you'll actually find someone to be your counter party. But as you framed it "if you're very unsure, you might win a lot" makes it clear that this isn't intuitive, lol

Perhaps remove the sure part to better that UX and just make it 50/50?

We don't do 50/50 here! It's a prediction market! haha

But yes, I could create a simplified UI and the "advanced stuff" might be hidden behind a checkbox. People are way more familiar with bets meaning that you pay the same amount as the other party.

Or let the markets average out the spread and enforce that and don't let users deviate from it by a certain amount?

I think that goes into the direction of creating a market maker and "market orders". I intend to do this and this was actually what was blocking me the whole time. The prospect of having to create an automated market maker for an MVP was very overwhelming, lol. But then I realized that first comes manual trading and a market maker only shows up when there's already some liquidity around. So an AMM is actually just "nice to have" even though most people might expect there to be one in a market :) We're really spoiled!

Also not sure what to do next, I guess wait until the end of the week

Do some deep research and see if you might want to change your prediction and buy more shares / sell some shares :) At least that's what serious traders would do now, haha

But yes, I am even currently missing to show the date that was entered during market creation, lol. The date doesn't enforce settlement currently anyway.

Also not sure why there's a bunch of "2 shares" stuff, are you substituting the word "to" for 2?

I didn't want to read any of the wall of text so sorry if that's answered lol.

I believe your questions will be mostly answered by the YT video :) I didn't explain prediction market stuff in the text

I know it's early but those are my initial impressions. Cool to see though.

Thanks, feedback is very important in this early stage :) So thanks again!

653 sats \ 0 replies \ @TonyGiorgio 5 Dec 2023

Yeah I feel that. I only know the concepts, but some user friendly stuff could go a long way in usability before you have to build something that's "to a t" perfect prediction market. Just start out with 4 or 5 buttons and take it from there: no clue, doubtful, neutral, positive, absolute

Then some concepts such as "double down" or "reverse order" if the user changes their mind or is more confident.