over the next four years, will the sum of bitcoin transaction fees be larger than the sum of block subsidies?
I sincerely doubt it. Even after the upcoming halving the subsidy will be 3.125 ₿ per block. To achieve this, we’d need blocks to remain full for the next four years and transactions to bid an average feerate of more than 312.5 ṩ/vB. My expectation would be that the inscription and rune hype will eventually abate and while those uses may continue to buy any "left-over" blockspace, I doubt that they will be pushing feerates as high as we’ve seen last week continuously.
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