reply on: Wrong? Early? I’m Not Sure \ stacker news ~econ

1009 sats \ 3 replies \ @ek 14 Dec 2023 \ on: Wrong? Early? I’m Not Sure econ

made me realize how bad my estimates of the economy have been over the last few years.

good you didn't participate in prediction markets about it, lol 👀

sorry, replied too fast, reading the rest now :)

i have to admit that i don't know much about economy stuff but

Maybe Powell is just kicking the can down the road again by signaling for lower interest rates (and more money printing), but it’s hard for me to deny that he’s done a good job keeping the economy together… and both can be true.

how come you think that it's thanks to his actions not despite of his actions?

that isn't clear to me reading your post. is the only variable in a economy really just the interest rate that Powell sets? Or in other words: Does Powell have full reign over the economy or are there other variables he is not in control? (Honest question, as mentioned, I don't know much about this stuff but I would like to know)

1004 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 14 Dec 2023

wow edit timer ran out and it feels like 20 new comments appeared when I reloaded the page, lol

what did you get right and what did you get wrong?

the only prediction i only ever had was saying to a friend: "If bitcoin ever goes below $20k again I will reconsider if I am right about bitcoin"

Then it did when Russia invaded Ukraine, then I reconsidered, then I doubled down, lol

I was thinking to myself: Yes, the 200WA was broken for the first time. But does that really matter so much? There is so much going on in the world, I actually think that bitcoin still holding strong at $16k is a very good sign, lol

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 14 Dec 2023

yeah it’s a fair point that we can’t know all the possible outcomes and weigh Powell’s decision making against them all, but he was widely ridiculed for being too slow to raise rates, and dealt with a lot of criticism for keeping rates high in the last year… now the complaints seem to have subsided.

114 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 14 Dec 2023

I see and I can agree with that even though I didn't even follow the discussion. I just used to watch a YTer who live streamed the FTFC meetings (?) until this trader YTer lost what seems to be all his coins on FTX

Then I was thinking too myself: And I thought I can get some advice from this guy? Who should have known by now that maybe, you shouldn't keep so much corn on an exchange? Even though you keep saying it's sooo safe because it's sooo regulated and you absolutely don't get paid to say this?

FTX disaster was really also a eye opener moment for me to see how many people are so full of stupid shit in this space, lol

Like guys: did we not try to tell you that this is exactly why you don't get bitcoin? lol

And I think people in general just overestimate their ability to estimate stuff. I don't know where this is coming from. Do they forget how bad their past predictions were? That's why huge props @kr for calling yourself out on that, lol. Most people don't.

That's why I like PMs so much. If you want to give us an opinion, you better tell us what you think how much worth your opinion is, else gtfo because you might just be wasting our time, lol :)