How is this recession going to play out? \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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How is this recession going to play out?

364 sats \ 13 comments \ @plebpegasus 15 Jun 2022 bitcoin

With rates raising, CPI percentage increasing MoM, and real inflation making its toll on everyday necessities; how will all this play out?

I continuously see predictions for food, energy, and housing shortages. What are the best ways to prepare for this instead of over reacting?

I'm sure I'm not the only person here who is thinking about this. How are corporations and households preparing for the Feds raising rates and predictions of higher inflation in the future?

Thoughts???

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65 sats \ 3 replies \ @jp 15 Jun 2022

Inflation, while bad in the US, will be catastrophic in developing nations. The people of these nations will revolt internally as basic food items become too expensive (see: Arab Spring and the correlation to QE1).

Subsequently, Geopolitics will push Russia and NATO closer to war through proxy wars in these revolting nations.

China will take advantage of the situation and invade Taiwan.

Sanctions will be placed on everyone and you will see a bifurcation of payment networks. Normies will retreat to Bitcoin as a safe haven while the world burns around them.

History will be written.

69 sats \ 2 replies \ @Majjin 16 Jun 2022

The only issue I have with your prediction is the invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan is not likely to be invaded anytime soon. China likes to saber rattle about Taiwan, but in reality an invasion will take D-Day levels of forces and coordination.

I think that the CCP is playing the long con. They'll subvert Taiwan and subtly control it behind the scenes. Taiwan will remain "free" for quite a while so that the CCP can continue its propaganda. Eventually, I think Taiwan will become politically and culturally compromised to the point where they will willingly join with the mainland. This may take like 30 to 40 years, IMO. Once that happens, China can begin a new propaganda campaign about the glorious reunification and victory of the CCP.

I certainly hope they fail miserably.

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @jp 16 Jun 2022

You're probably right - propaganda is more effective but takes a long duration.

Political subversion was tried with Ukraine throughout the years (recall Trump fiasco) and, when Russia failed to replace leadership, Russia simply invaded. It's possible the same happens in Taiwan. But I think we both agree that the endgame for Taiwan is that they end up as part of China.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Majjin 16 Jun 2022

Yeah I can see an all out invasion as a desperate last resort if propaganda doesn't work. I think that if they do try an invasion, they're just going to get themselves into a quagmire at best. America needs to kick its dependence on Chinese imports before something like that happens. Otherwise, we'll be experiencing shortages that make the ones happening now look like an utter luxury.

110 sats \ 0 replies \ @nerd2ninja 15 Jun 2022

Productivity.

That is the answer to your question of what the best ways to prepare for this is. To produce the market needs you foresee needing to be met and creating a Bitcoin business.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @k00b 15 Jun 2022

Stagflation but I suspect they'll lower rates again before it gets too ugly. Either way it's going to be ugly though.

12 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheBTCManual 16 Jun 2022

I've been stock piling food that I can, I started growing in my garden, I know that's not for everyone but if you can, you should. I've also changed my eating habits, to not eat empty calories anymore and reduced a lot of my spending

I've also kept a few cans of petrol just in case and water too, just incase of any shortages

Even with interest rates going up, that only curbs demand for some things and doesn't affect supply chains. People still need to eat and move around and if supply chains aren't fixed and some will be impacted by higher cost of funding, I can only see more shortages on the rise

I am looking at Japan and EU they are looking hella fragile right now and if the dam breaks there we can see cascading issues

Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Laos have all pretty much defaulted or are on the verge, this things hitting Asia hard where a lot of goods come from that most people don't even realise

11 sats \ 0 replies \ @FatBear 15 Jun 2022

Badly. I'm pretty sure this ends with endless QE and monetary debasement.

1 sat \ 2 replies \ @tomlaies 15 Jun 2022

If history is anything to go by - don't panic. We are very biased by 2008. But 2008 was exceptionally bad and long.

If you look at average recessions since 1970 this one would have to be over by October.

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @cryptocoin 15 Jun 2022

The U.S. finally bounced out of the "great recession" thanks to fracking.

If there's no access to more energy, the economy doesn't have what it needs to grow. Relative to other economies, even standing in place, the U.S. may look like like it is holding its own, but in my opinion, don't expect this to be either short-lived or of minimal consequence.