That's a great point. Americans tend to forget about the rest of the world. In all likelihood the world would be a complete disaster zone before the US had to default.
It means the US must cut spending 30% or more which is the portion of the budget that is financed by debt. The dollar will probably soar short term in that case and markets and assets will deflate and likely stay deflated even when inflation picks back up.
Why? Because the judges, the congress, the military, the police, you name it will still be in place. So nothing will actually change. They will double down on stupidity and make even worse economic policies and borrow, print and spend even harder after a while. So the beginning of the end if anything. But lets see.
Fair. I just meant it's the end of this particular debt story.
Conventional wisdom is that a US default would have the opposite effect on the dollar, since the whole "full faith and credit" thing would be severely devalued and US Treasuries would no longer be treated as "risk free" assets.
Your are not wrong. However, there is no great alternative to the dollar, so it will still be the safe haven asset for most people. Hard to explain i guess, But lets see.
It will almost certainly be cherry-picked, but that doesn't mean there won't be any notable names. There will be people who get thrown under the bus and probably some of the well known associates (Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton, etc.) will be listed for the sake of credibility.
I also expect some token prosecutions and civil suits, because I think they know that public concerns over this topic need to be addressed.
Will the push against wokeness continue?
Will the US ramp up censorship and cancel the elections to protect democracy?
Which EU country will default first and trigger a cascade pushing the ECB to bail out the union?
Will Germany still have an industrial base with their current energy policy?
Will Zelensky be left to its own fate for the West to focus on a newer, shinier war?
Will we finally activate CTV , Drivechains, Vaults and the many BIPs that we need to scale Bitcoin instead of use the time to fight an unwinable battle?
I think the recent discussions around "ordinals" and Ocean's "censoring" TX has brought light on all the fine details of mining pools. Now we have a few questions on how we want to see bitcoin mining and pools develop.
Will we be able to focus on building quality tools on bitcoin and making stronger the fundamentals, instead lost our selves by paying to much attention on nonsenses such as ETFs and fiat value appreciation?