222 sats \ 3 replies \ @orthwyrm 2 Jan \ on: What are your predictions for 2024? oracle
Elaborating on my 2024 predictions I pulled out my ass.
  1. BTC hits $100k.
Self-explanatory due to a combination of probable tailwinds: ETFs, halving, rate cuts. No, it's never priced in.
  1. Attempts to stop BRC-20, Stamps, etc. will be fruitless.
Incentives > Virtue signalling on Twitter, sorry puritans. Filtering this stuff out devolves into a cat-and-mouse game, and the degens have more incentive to shitcoin than you do to stop them.
  1. Public LN capacity will not grow significantly.
There's not much demand for Bitcoin as a payment network, which is part of the reason why blocks are filled with shitcoining. Bitcoin has to mature a lot as a SoV before the market starts demanding it as a MoE.
  1. We will see an extended period where blocks carry +10 BTC fees.
We already got +6 BTC fees last year and retail still thinks Bitcoin is dead. This could get absurd in a bullmarket, please please please consolidate UTXOs while you can.
  1. Stacker News user count will grow significantly, NOSTR will kind of stagnate.
NOSTR and clients make many compromises to remain censorship-resistant and permissionless, but this currently isn't a big problem for the centralised platforms so the advantage is lost. Not seeing the demand.
write
preview
111 sats \ 2 replies \ @orthwyrm 2 Jan
I am willing to place bets although some predictions need to be re-worded so as to be measurable.
reply
100 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 2 Jan
I think your ass is predicting stuff too well for me to bet against.
Or it might depend on how much you trust your ass.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @orthwyrm 2 Jan
TBH most of my predictions here are kind of obvious, nothing spicy.
I have a pretty large allocation to MSTR so perhaps I could make a bet on Saylor.
reply