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7234 sats \ 70 comments \ @ek 1 Jan oracle

zaps forwarded to @orthwyrm (50%) @oracle (50%)

inspired by @orthwyrm's saloon comment here

Question in the title. Can be a prediction about anything. Extra sats if your prediction includes when it will come true (for example Q1, Q2, Q3 or Q4).

Asspulling welcome, preferably with an explanation (as always)!

view all related items

1408 sats \ 7 replies \ @grayruby 1 Jan

I predict SN will have a monster year but end the year with fewer than 15 territories.

107 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Jan

How many were bought outright? I don't think there's any mechanism to get rid of those.

507 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 1 Jan

No idea but I wouldn't guess many. I think most people did the 100k for one month to test things out. That's what I did as well. Besides that route gives you a month to stack 100k sats before you have to pay again.

137 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Jan

Looking at the stacking analytics, almost 17M sats were spent on territories. I think that probably equates to four fully purchased territories, plus 5M for the installment payments.

I bet you're right and it is a little silly having 50 territories for a few hundred users.

239 sats \ 3 replies \ @gmd 1 Jan

I predict monster year but 50+ territories

109 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 2 Jan

They aren't profitable so that would be interesting.

1032 sats \ 1 reply \ @dk 2 Jan

I think territories not being profitable is a feature rather than a bug. Owning a piece of real estate as one of the first settlers in a place is never profitable. You have to invest ahead of the curve. Once it's obviously profitable to everyone it will be intensely competitive.

Also, the whole purpose of this website (in my opinion) is to explore tying financial incentives to a media network. If the real estate was cheap it would quickly get astroturfed. Higher cost promotes quality territories and more engaged admins.

Think about it like domain names in the 1990s. You could literally buy any dot-com domain name you wanted. No one else wanted them. But you still had to pay and renew every year. Some of those domains are easily worth millions of dollars today.

If you predict SN has a monster year and over time becomes an interesting piece of Internet real estate every territory will look cheap by today's standards. I say this even when factoring in my bullish assumptions about the value of bitcoin.

117 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 2 Jan

I like the analysis. Interesting way to look at it. I guess we will see how it plays out.

483 sats \ 0 replies \ @BountifulB 1 Jan freebie

Q1 - BTC ETF approved in USA
Q2 - Bitcoin above @ 60k
Endless media propaganda & gaslighting about the "great economy," "bright future" and "unity"
Javier Milei revitalize Argentinian Economy by multiple measurable indicators
The enemies of the USA will take advantage of Joe Biden's weakness and conflict aversion during an election year, by aggressively provoking and threatening USA
Joe Biden declines to accept nomination at Democratic National Convention at due to "health"
Biden replaced by Gavin Newsom (the giveway clue was during his debate with Desantis he did a canned line "neither of us will be our parties' Nominee" - reverse-telegraphing that he is being prepped to be the nominee by the ruling class.)
Nayib Bukele relected as president of El Salvador by a landslide
Q4 - Bitcoin above 90k
Q4 - A contentious populist revolt and elite psyop of unforseen proportions ending in The Return of President Trump

993 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 1 Jan

I predict Joe Biden will die in 2024.

I also predict that Luke Dashjr will find all his bitcoin on an old floppy disk in the bottom drawer of his desk.

447 sats \ 1 reply \ @orthwyrm fwd 1 Jan

I predict Joe Biden will die in 2024.

Spicy and very believable.

60 sats \ 0 replies \ @gmd 1 Jan freebie

seems to be a popular prediction here. He looks damn healthy for his age even if his mental faculties are questionable. I think he lives for another 10 years.

298 sats \ 0 replies \ @BitByBit21 1 Jan

By end of Q4, unless the world has ended and regardless of anything else, Bitcoin will keep doing its thing: tik tok, next block.

600 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 1 Jan

A quick question before we get started. Can you please define "asspulling"? It took me a good part of 2023 to understand what "ass milking" was, and now this? I want to start the New Year off right.

321 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek OP 1 Jan freebie

It's when you pull stuff like predictions out of your ass. Namesake is @orthwyrm, also because of this comment.

447 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 1 Jan

Thank you! This I can do. I pull theories and opinions out of my ass all the time.

447 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek OP 1 Jan freebie

I think most people don't have a problem with ass pulling, only if you declare it as something else, lol

It's like with bots. I don't think people have a problem with bots. But they have a relatable problem with deception.

related comment

184 sats \ 2 replies \ @south_korea_ln 1 Jan

The Korean birth rate will fall below 0.6 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin will fork
Saylor will become the enemy of his fanboys of today

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 2 Jan freebie

Bitcoin will fork

This year? When?

169 sats \ 5 replies \ @kytt 1 Jan

There will be at least one high profile arrest that will make the news, possibly worldwide
There will be no 2024 election (if there is, Trump will win)
Joe Biden will die
Bitcoin will break $100k USD before September
At least one three-letter agency will be dissolved

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @ek OP 2 Jan

At least one three-letter agency will be dissolved

American?

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @kytt 2 Jan

Yes

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek OP 2 Jan

I would be willing to bet against this. Are you willing to bet on this?

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @kytt 2 Jan

Nah. I should have said end of 2025 at the latest, but still not willing to bet. Just having fun with it.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek OP 2 Jan

Not even one sat? ;)

But it's okay for me. Was more just interested in your answer than in actual betting.

156 sats \ 0 replies \ @0fje0 1 Jan

I predict that by the end of 2024, we'll start referring to the blocksize wars between 2015 and 2017 as "the good old days".

222 sats \ 3 replies \ @orthwyrm fwd 2 Jan

Elaborating on my 2024 predictions I pulled out my ass.

BTC hits $100k.

Self-explanatory due to a combination of probable tailwinds: ETFs, halving, rate cuts. No, it's never priced in.

Attempts to stop BRC-20, Stamps, etc. will be fruitless.

Incentives > Virtue signalling on Twitter, sorry puritans. Filtering this stuff out devolves into a cat-and-mouse game, and the degens have more incentive to shitcoin than you do to stop them.

Public LN capacity will not grow significantly.

There's not much demand for Bitcoin as a payment network, which is part of the reason why blocks are filled with shitcoining. Bitcoin has to mature a lot as a SoV before the market starts demanding it as a MoE.

We will see an extended period where blocks carry +10 BTC fees.

We already got +6 BTC fees last year and retail still thinks Bitcoin is dead. This could get absurd in a bullmarket, please please please consolidate UTXOs while you can.

Stacker News user count will grow significantly, NOSTR will kind of stagnate.

NOSTR and clients make many compromises to remain censorship-resistant and permissionless, but this currently isn't a big problem for the centralised platforms so the advantage is lost. Not seeing the demand.

111 sats \ 2 replies \ @orthwyrm fwd 2 Jan

I am willing to place bets although some predictions need to be re-worded so as to be measurable.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 2 Jan

I think your ass is predicting stuff too well for me to bet against.

Or it might depend on how much you trust your ass.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @orthwyrm fwd 2 Jan

TBH most of my predictions here are kind of obvious, nothing spicy.

I have a pretty large allocation to MSTR so perhaps I could make a bet on Saylor.

143 sats \ 0 replies \ @oliverweiss 1 Jan

Everyone who wants to use Bitcoin in a daily life will have that option by Q4!

141 sats \ 0 replies \ @antic 1 Jan

Q1:

Mass Bitcoin ETF Approval
Another round of mass tech layoffs

Q2:

Another round of mass tech layoffs

Q3:

Another round of mass layoffs (all sectors)
Major releases and adoption in Bitcoin Layer 2 technology

Q4:

US debt servicing cost breaches $1T/year
1 BTC = 1 BTC

449 sats \ 0 replies \ @gmd 1 Jan

100k BTC why not 😂

163 sats \ 0 replies \ @030e0dca83 1 Jan

Q2 people on the street will start to ask: Have you heard about magic internet money? And if yes how to acquire it? On the other hand I'm waiting when the war will be ended in Q3

162 sats \ 0 replies \ @Alby 2 Jan

Next country adopting Bitcoin (Argentina?) New virus, maybe cybervirus Elton John not still standing

159 sats \ 0 replies \ @humblefreak 2 Jan

CBDCs will be slowly rolling out in some countries.

Quarter by quarter the number of countries that have a) CBDC regulation (laws but no tech) b) CBDC pilots or c) full CBDC rollout will slowly increase.

The EU as a whole will have a centralized CBDC regulation/laws by Q4.

There will be individual EU countries with CBDC pilots at city-level by Q4.

There will be at least one African country trying and failing at a CDBC roll-out, sort of following the failed footsteps of Nigeria.

154 sats \ 0 replies \ @Roll 2 Jan

I presume i will be living in Q1, For Q2 may be i will live better as ,may be, my resolutions will be running, Q3 , i ve no clue as there are summer days, And Q4, i wish what i ve decided to start at the beginning of the year is still running

151 sats \ 0 replies \ @satoshiplanet 2 Jan

New health pandemic (Q1)
Death of Kim Yong-un (Q2)
Bitcoin price reaches $100,000 (Q3)
First female US president (Q4)

142 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr 1 Jan

CPI is over 5% by Dec 2024

142 sats \ 0 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 1 Jan

SN’s MAU will 2x by end of Q3

121 sats \ 0 replies \ @lunanto 2 Jan

Bitcoin will reach 80k by Q4

107 sats \ 0 replies \ @rhombus 1 Jan

Fair-Weather Bitcoiners will realize the ETF's were overblown and disperse. Only to re-emerge before the halving, hyping themselves up for disappointment once again and dispersing. Only to re-emerge when number go up several months after the halving until the emergence of the next bear market where they'll claim Bitcoin was a failure after all and disperse once again. Only to re-emerge for the next hype cycle where they'll wake from their slumber and repeat it all again. So it goes...

82 sats \ 8 replies \ @TomK 1 Jan

The Davos Crowd is loosing at all fronts, including the Ukraine war. In reaction they'll be doubling down (watch what's happening with Trump and the climate bullshit). Will be wild and volatile.

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @xz 2 Jan freebie

It's a weird one, isn't it. Anyone with half a brain can see that E.U and U.S are feeding blatant lies to attempt to enable further policies that nobody wants nor believes in.

Encouraging that there is clearly resistance. Feel this has been aided by a few high-profile figures calling out the bs. Hope we have more of that.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK 2 Jan

But there are cracks anywhere. And how the EU is fighting 'X' is more than telling

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @ek OP 2 Jan

including the Ukraine war.

What does this mean?

51 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK 2 Jan

It means this proxy had been lost from the very first day and they are sacrificing people for whatever goal they follow

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @ek OP 2 Jan freebie

So you think Ukraine will collapse and Russia will occupy it this year?

If so, you mean whole Ukraine?

Are you up for bets on this when we worked out the details?

61 sats \ 0 replies \ @Entrep 2 Jan

A.I will become more privacy infiltrating

61 sats \ 0 replies \ @alvaraaltopelti 2 Jan

I predict signs of extraterrestrial life will be discovered in 2024

41 sats \ 0 replies \ @Scholarhacker 1 Jan

Total. Social. Collapse.

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @joyepzion 2 Jan

Trump becomes President agains

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Jan

The US dollar is going to strengthen significantly.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @fiatdenier 2 Jan

Bitcoin will be higher

300 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xbitcoiner 1 Jan

I predict mempool will clean up

60 sats \ 0 replies \ @badabing 2 Jan

Bold

30 sats \ 1 reply \ @cryotosensei 1 Jan

I predict that I will stack one million sats here due to my persistence and irresistible writing, heh

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OgFOMK 1 Jan

May the 4th be with you on the way.

20 sats \ 3 replies \ @pillar 1 Jan

I ain't predicting unless we bet.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek OP 2 Jan freebie

How much would you be willing to bet?

I am willing to bet 5k against whatever you say. But not an unlimited amount of bets, lol

43 sats \ 1 reply \ @faithandcredit 1 Jan

The US will balance the budget

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OgFOMK 1 Jan

Wow. This will happen when lobsters whistle from the mountains.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @watchmancbiz 28 Mar

God is moving like never before in History. The likes of what we're about to see is TRULY BIBLICAL. no one is really ready for it! Buckle up, cause even though their is mighty GLORY & REVIVAL on the horizon over the storm, the ship is about to rock like you've never seen it rock!!! DARKEST BEFORE THE DAWN! 💥

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek OP 2 Jan freebie

deleted because I thought I am in the saloon