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Why I'm Bullish 1: Bitcoin is a Hurricane

3598 sats \ 16 comments \ @kepford 10 Jan bitcoin

Why I'm Bullish: A Personal Bitcoin Series

Had an idea this morning to start writing down reasons I am bullish on bitcoin's future. These posts will be things that clicked for me along the way. They are things that became bigger to me that the opinions of people in my life, the current market price in fiat, and emotions in the moment.

I'm not going to be exhaustive in this series because there are many articles out there that do that better than I will. This is gonna be personal.

Why I'm Bullish 1: Bitcoin is a Hurricane

One reason I'm bullish about bitcoin is game theory. Even those that do not believe in bitcoin for the reasons we bitcoiners do will adopt it. If for no other reason than they don't hate money. We are watching an example of this happen right now. Jamie Dimon the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase has famously said he would ban bitcoin if it where up to him. He claims it is only useful for criminal activities. Yet, his company is now involved in the bitcoin ETFs facilitation. Why? Because Chase is motivated by profits.

The greed for money will lead even those that hate bitcoin to interact with it. To use it. Why? Because they want wealth and power more than they hate bitcoin. You can see this over and over again in other areas like politics. Business interests support both parties. Both candidates running for office. Multi-national interests support multiple sides in conflicts. Its just game theory and as bitcoin exchange rates rise we will only see more examples of this.

Now, don't be confused. I don't care if people like Dimon adopt bitcoin. Why this makes me bullish is the fact that in order for bitcoin to be adopted by the masses it does not require the masses to BELIEVE or even UNDERSTAND bitcoin. It only requires a critical mass to do so and we are getting ever closer to that being a reality.

Only a fool stands in the way of a hurricane. Jamie Dimon may be many things but I don't think he's a fool.

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1175 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford OP 10 Jan

The same argument can be made for nation state adoption. As nation come to the realization that they can't stop bitcoin or more importantly the US can't stop it that changes things. Additionally as number goes up it will become increasingly obvious that they should add BTC to their balance sheets.

The broader point is that if I believed that a majority of the world would need to understand and believe the principles that under pin bitcoin for it to win I would not be bullish at all. It would be hopeless. One thing I've learned in my time on this rock. Most people don't think. If you depend only on convincing people intellectually you are screwed.

44 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Jan

The minority rule is relevant here. The marginal cost of adopting some form of bitcoin payment is less than the marginal value of getting our business.

675 sats \ 1 reply \ @kepford OP 10 Jan

Well put. SO there is a name for this. Thanks

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Jan

I've seen that name used before, in the context of kosher salt, but I'm not sure how well known it is. There's also a political science usage that isn't quite the same.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @thebullishbitcoiner 11 Jan

Why this makes me bullish is the fact that in order for bitcoin to be adopted by the masses it does not require the masses to BELIEVE or even UNDERSTAND bitcoin.

Love this aspect of Bitcoin — it doesn’t need us, we need it.

11 sats \ 9 replies \ @cleaningup12 10 Jan

Do you believe that Bitcoin or Blockchain technology generally has been suppressed? We are 15 years to the day of hal's tweet and worldwide adoption is nowhere to be seen

Mr and Mrs Jones still see it as a scam

Obviously there are players with a lot to lose if a new kid on the block takes their candy

One example of a new technological invention which seems to not threaten the boys club is AI

AI seems to have erupted recently and been allowed to permeate every area of our lives, given a free pass by the powers that be

Or maybe we're too early as you say!

1083 sats \ 1 reply \ @kepford OP 10 Jan

We are 15 years to the day of hal's tweet and worldwide adoption is nowhere to be seen

Gonna push back on this. Are you living under a rock? Have you seen a chart lately. Bitcoin adoption has been growing for many years. I think most of us just have VERY high time preference. Gradually then suddenly is a great way to describe my outlook for bitcoin.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 11 Jan

I often compare the timeline of bitcoin adoption with the timeline of internet adoption.

The history of the Internet started in the 80s with ARPAnet.

15 years after that, the dotcom bubble didn't even pop yet.

We're that early.

I think most of us just have VERY high time preference.

100% agree

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @TwoLargePizzas 11 Jan

I do believe they have tried to suppress it as much as they can but suppressing an idea is extremely difficult to do long term.

Also, people often wildly underestimate how long it takes for adoption curves play out, especially those that require network effects.

Electricity, Telephones and Automobiles all had roughly 1% adoption for the first 20 years before exploding upwards over the next few decades after their invention. Now it's difficult to imagine what life was even like without those things.

I mean just think about that... 2 decades for the first 1% adoption followed by 4 decades to get to 90% adoption.

23 sats \ 3 replies \ @kepford OP 10 Jan

AI is an evolution not a revolution. We are in another hype cycle for AI.

Bitcoin is FAR more impactful to humanity than ChatGPT. What people are calling AI is really computers and algos. It is going to make a massive impact but it isn't even close to Bitcoin IMO.

"Blockchain" is just people taking a part of bitcoin and breaking what makes bitcoin valuable to humanity. Blockchain on its own is stupid. For most use cases it is a solution looking for a problem. In the context of a proof of work network of miners it changes everything.

I think world wide adoption could take 100 years or maybe much less. Very hard to say. I've looked at history of the Internet and it is wild how long it took for people to get it. It is my belief that we are still in the infancy stage of the Internet.

I try to think about bitcoin like this. Imagine if a new element was discovered. Something like gold. It never existed before. It would take time for the world to really get it. Most would never get it. I don't think most people understand why gold is valuable beyond people value it. So we are back to my point. Those that can't or won't get it will be the followers.

3 sats \ 2 replies \ @cleaningup12 10 Jan

I agree with you, I'm not disagreeing, it's just that with the information age and the Internet providing the rails for any new train to roll into town

The speed of adoption could be much faster except for certain players derailing anything they see as a threat.

We as humans realise that the only way to get global concensus on any topic is co-operation

But how much of our 8b population is ready to make a new decision on the future of humanity and how many would prefer to have their daily feed fed to them by a centralised trough of comfort where they don't need to take responsibility for the outcome

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @kepford OP 10 Jan

You overestimate the power of the suits and underestimate the stupidity of the masses.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @cleaningup12 10 Jan

Yes I agree,

Case in point:

UK Post Office scandal unravelling hour by hour

20 years since the beginning of sub post masters being accused of stealing money

They were totally wholly innocent and to avoid going to prison, they admitted to crimes they didn't commit

Some lost their entire net worth

houses sold to pay fines never to be seen again

Marriages lost forever

Suicides!

Treated unbelievably despicably by the suits,

lied to, evidence covered up.

The victims were calling this out for years but nothing happened until centralised media crystallised the issue and gradually then suddenly the prime minister stands up in Parliament today and effectively pardons all 800 victims

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford OP 10 Jan

The other aspect of this is that the tools are being developed. I don't think the ecosystem is ready for world wide adoption. I don't think it will happen all at once though. The only way things like Lightning are going to improve is if adoption pushes them to improve.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @jbtc_ 11 Jan

Not surpressed, but controlled.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BhavikBitcoin 4 Mar

#bitcoin is the most bullish ever right now. Let me tell you how . During 2012-13 bear market, it took 472 days to break the previous all time high, it took 563 days to break the previous ATH in 2016-17 bear market, it took 721 days to break the previous ATH during 2010-20 bear market, Right now, we are at 469 days from the bottom and price is just 4.94% below the All Time High.