The halving will be in April / May :) Based on FedWatchTool, the first rate cut will be on 20th March FOMC meeting. I follow this chart for more than 1 year ago, and the predictions was accurates. If we believe this chart, the IR remain the same on the 31th January FOMC, and then will cut 25 bps on every FOMC (20th March, 1st May, 12th June, etc)... I'm almost 100% sure IR will be constant on 31th January, and will cut 25 bps on 20th March. But as always...we will see ;)

Here is the FWT prediction about January FOMC:

And here about 20th March FOMC:

Honestly, I consider this tool useful. You can check it here: