What happens first?
The Halving62.9%
Fed Rate cut37.1%
70 votes \ poll ended
586 sats \ 1 reply \ @ssaurel 13 Jan
This is where Bitcoin's advantage comes into its own again.
With the Fed, you have to guess. With the Fed, you're at the mercy of a few unrepresentative people making arbitrary decisions.
You wonder when the Fed will act. You wonder what the Fed will decide and how that will drive the market next.
With Bitcoin, you already know everything. You know that Halving will take place no matter what, every 210,000 blocks. You know that the issuance of new units will be halved no matter what.
You practically already know the date.
Bitcoin is also superior in that the rules of the game are known to everyone in advance, allowing you to plan how to protect the fruits of your labor effectively.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 13 Jan
Bullseye.
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30 sats \ 1 reply \ @needcreations_ 14 Jan
nice poll
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 14 Jan
Thanks. It ended up being a pretty popular one.
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @OriginalSize 13 Jan
The halving is a certainty. The Fed could be dissolved on Tuesday. It's an easy choice.
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @karanjajes 13 Jan
I believe halving will be first
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 13 Jan
Seems to be the consensus.
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @TNStacker 13 Jan
Fed will be late. it's kinda their thing.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 13 Jan
ain't that the truth
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30 sats \ 1 reply \ @cryotosensei 13 Jan
Halving comes first, especially given the FED’s (deliberately?) slow decision-making process coupled with delay tactics
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 13 Jan
So no March cut in your opinion. Do you think they will cut in June?
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21 sats \ 2 replies \ @gnilma 13 Jan
Halving will probably happen in April, but I think they won't cut rates until June. Especially when their BS inflation metric aka CPI went up slightly in December 2023.
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby OP 13 Jan
Even with Jamie Dimon indicating he thinks they should cut in March. I know we as bitcoiners don’t care about Dimon but he has a lot of sway in fiat land.
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @gnilma 13 Jan
I still don't think they will cut in March. It's just a hunch, I might be wrong. Who the hell actually know what will they do anyways? All this interest rate shit is all a joke, has no basis, and all decided on the whim of a few individuals anyways.
The halving, on the other hand, is entirely predictable and will definitely happen on block 840,000 with the block subsidy cut from 6.25 to 3.125. That is predictability, which allows people to plan for the future. Not this playing with the interest rate and change monetary policy on a whim type of fiat bullshit.
Sorry for the rant, but yea, my tea leaves tell me they will start to cut rates in June and the halving will come before the first rate cut.
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20 sats \ 3 replies \ @xz 13 Jan
What qualifies as a rate-cut? -0.25%
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby OP 13 Jan
Yes any rate cut because if they do one it won’t be the last.
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @xz 13 Jan
Sounds like opioids.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 13 Jan
That’s a good analogy.
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr 13 Jan
good question, i wouldn’t want to make this bet but if i had to i’d take the halving
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 13 Jan
So no rate in March in your opinion. June?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kurszusz 13 Jan
The halving will be in April / May :)
Based on FedWatchTool, the first rate cut will be on 20th March FOMC meeting.
I follow this chart for more than 1 year ago, and the predictions was accurates. If we believe this chart, the IR remain the same on the 31th January FOMC, and then will cut 25 bps on every FOMC (20th March, 1st May, 12th June, etc)...
I'm almost 100% sure IR will be constant on 31th January, and will cut 25 bps on 20th March.
But as always...we will see ;)
Here is the FWT prediction about January FOMC:
And here about 20th March FOMC:
Honestly, I consider this tool useful. You can check it here:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
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