It is quite possible that one day, when we look back at the 2020s, we will say that the $300 billion collapse of the Chinese real estate giant Evergrande was our Lehman moment, the great reversal of Chinese society, in which the negative demographic forces, the massive misallocations under the interventionist economic system, paralyzed the entire economy. At the time of the fall of Evergrande, the Chinese real estate market was inflated to the largest submarket in the world with a 7% share of the global economy as a result of investment guarantees and government subsidies. And just as during the Lehman crisis, when structured securities were used to disguise credit risks and find enthusiastic investors worldwide who emptied their pockets with a greedy smile, global capital flowed into the Chinese real estate market almost without limit as if there were no alternative. ''After all, growth is infinite here.'' People had almost got drunk on the apparent omnipotence of the Communist Party (CCP), which had the boundless Socratic wisdom to consistently grow the economy by 5% every year. I had always wondered why the economy wasn't simply allowed to grow by 8% or ten or 30?

No, I'll be honest at this point: I've never invested in China in my entire life. I was much more interested in another giant: India! For me, India is the systemic winner - it is a largely democratically organized society with a stable and even growing demographic. Of course, and you can't beat about the bush, state interventionist actions are also commonplace here - the last major example was certainly the currency annulation of 2016 in which people were robbed of their money overnight with a following lovely bank run on hand (good pitch for the bitcoin marketing deparment).

Swing State India What has fascinated me about India for years is the country's geopolitical orientation. President Modri is continuing the tradition of the geopolitical pendulum in which the country moves smoothly back and forth between the various blocs. The Indians know how to integrate themselves into the BRICs region, but also how to operate politically within the G7. They are the true global players - political cosmopolitans, equipped with the necessary pinch of power-political cynicism. So they open their doors to everyone: whether Russian oil or German mechanical engineering - everyone can find their sales market here and at the same time a complementary import sector. It is precisely this supple flexibility of the giant, probably only such a giant can afford this openly displayed opportunism, which makes the nuclear power appear ever more attractive to circulating capital as a port of discharge. Meanwhile Kashmir remains one of the few open flanks and unanswered questions, an open wound in society, which above all the former colonial power England continues to activate as a gateway for imperial power politics when it seems useful. Yes, yes, it is difficult to give up old possessions for good! (Where does the English Prime Minister come from again)?

What to do with it? But, as always, when we lack information or we are not sure about something, I stick to the old adage: if you're in doubt, zoom out! and: look at what the market, that incorruptible oracle in the long run, whispers to you. And the market speaks unmistakable words: the Indian stock market, its bond market, the stable growth, the low national debt 58%) - all of this oscillates harmoniously in a steady state equilibrium. The real economy is growing at over 6% a year, demographics are stable and the population is growing, while things are no longer looking so rosy in China. The CCP and its ''free'' media traditionally provide us with the most accurate and credible information about the economy and society. If we zoom out here too, we have to realize that China seems to have been in a deflationary spiral for some time. The CCP's panic-like reaction to the stock market's decline with intervention packages worth billions, the ban on short selling and the order to sovereign wealth funds to buy Chinese shares has contributed to a veritable flight of capital. The past few months clearly raise the question: is China still investable for us as private individuals? After all, we are not Jamie Dimon, who can discuss his ingenious investment strategies (and taxpayer-backed guarantees) with President Xi over an evening chat.

Unknown culture Naturally, we Europeans and North Americans, unless we have been lucky enough to travel to the country for a longer period of time, are completely unfamiliar with Indian culture, its magnificent and rich history, in which even Alexander the Great immortalized himself in a short chapter, the ancient philosophy and customs of life, such as the caste system, which is forbidden but still operates in the obscure background. But that doesn't mean that you can't approach it at the moment. Indian Philosophy is always worthwhile, which is why I would like to recommend ancient Indian literature such as the Vedas to everyone as a form of quietist literature, but its foreignness is no reason not to approach it intellectually with an open mind. After all, we also encounter Chinese culture and its peculiarities with an equidistance and a head full of question marks.

The Indian Decade? Without wanting to go too far out on a limb, I would like to take the risk of making a prediction at this point: the coming decade will be the Indian decade. But don't worry: the United States will form an appropriate counterbalance and, once it has resolved its internal conflict, will get the world back on its feet with the free market economy and the principles of capitalism!