Alternate take : The Chinese government has done what Western nations have refused to do and staged a managed collapse of their real estate bubble.
It's a good thing that Evergrande has gone into bankruptcy and allowed to fail.
China will be absolutely fine.
21 sats \ 3 replies \ @fm 6 Feb
I also think they will be fine.. they have it all to recover Many small investors will lose some money.. But just like the PIGS here in EU when 2008 hit.. Difference is they have the numbers to recover
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The panic-like massive intervention of the CCP is sth I wouldn't underrate
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @fm 6 Feb
i mean,
You know how FIAT works,
You delete some balances and ready to go.. When you have a massive productive laborforce, you can fix it.
This is why USA, Italy or Japan can have 200% of debt and not being shut off.. They have something to recover.. China has a lot of manpower.. And A LOT of US debt
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Absolutely. But I still have difficulties waghing the demographic effect. It looks like a collapse to me which could put massive deflationary pressure on the econ and credit (Japan?)
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What is an example of fine and not fine? How would you know if you were wrong?
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The capital market speaks differently
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China operates under a system of industrial capitalism and not financial capitalism as in the West, which is why China allowed (and prompted) its RE bubble to burst; financial bubbles hurt a productive industrial base.
Consequently 'the capital market speaking differently' is probably a good sign of health for China and that it's doing the right thing. Work is rewarded in China, not speculation (ok, some speculation is rewarded too). Western markets (heavily) favour speculation, not work.
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yes indeed. the financialization of the western economy cannot be denied. you have a point. but a lot of capital has been destroyed by centralized control in China. and i cannot imagine that the immense demographic distortions will not turn into deflationary pressure scenarios. china is also part of the fiat system
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I agree with you that pressure will exist and affect worlod economy, But, same as happended here, they will recover.
In 2008 the bank directly wiped up 100K from my family savings.. Just because.. ( maybe 2009..cant remember the exact dates)
Same will happen to small investors in china.. They get .10 cent on their dollar and sent to work again..