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1321 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 6 Feb \ on: What Will Happen to Empty Office Space? econ
It's a very interesting phenomenon, although I think the San Francisco issue may be exceptional because of the shoplifting (and general crime) leniency. Other liberal cities have that problem, but I don't think it's as interesting as the general trend of empty office space and other commercial real estate.
I'm thinking about what happened with movie theaters. About a decade ago, people thought theaters were dead. Then they changed and recovered. We used to be crammed together in uncomfortable theater seats. The model was clearly to fill the floor space with people and price to where anyone could go regularly. Now, theaters have very few seats, but they're huge and comfortable and the experience is almost unaffordable for most people.
We may see a smaller number of high-end, spacious, beautiful shops replace the lower floors of office buildings. The higher floors could be turned into executive suite style offices, rather than cubicles, for white collar workers. There are lots of professionals working remotely who are finding that they don't really like working from home and may be interested in going to a nice office nearby.
Longer term, I think a lot of commercial real estate will be turned into residential. That will increase local demand for some of the remaining commercial real estate.
Also related to this topic, is the likelihood of autonomous vehicles freeing up enormous amounts of urban real estate that is currently dedicated to parking space. That could dwarf even the effect of all this empty commercial real estate.
To carry the idea of the movie theatre forward. This would mean no more cube farms that everyone hated except for the control freak bosses who believed in complete oversight. Instead, large open layouts with desk spaces that people actually want to work at. Since office space is cheaper now, the cost to the company stays the same, yet the employees are happier, and, perhaps even want to come to the office.
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Open office layouts are a scam. Everyone I've talked to prefers the quiet and the privacy of having a cube.
It's just a way to pack more people into the same space so the company doesn't need to pay for bigger office space.
The best office environment I've worked in were in bays/quadricles, where a single team sat in a single giant cube, so you can easily communicate while still being closed off from drive-by's. Was really fun because each team decorated their bay in fun themes :)
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I'm glad someone liked my connection to movie theaters.
Of course, it might just be bigger more spacious offices for the control freak bosses or some other amenities that take up lots of space: fitness centers and on-site daycare come to mind. Either way, workplaces could be moving away from the soul-crushing vibe they've been known for.
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Also related to this topic, is the likelihood of autonomous vehicles freeing up enormous amounts of urban real estate that is currently dedicated to parking space. That could dwarf even the effect of all this empty commercial real estate
yes, this is going to be a huge trend, probably even more so in suburban places where big box retailers have thousands of parking spots.
what do you think parking lots will be repurposed for?
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In suburban areas, my guess is that most of that space will become residential. That should offset some of the issues we have with (sub)urban sprawl.
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