When Bitcoin/Lightning tech is both mature and globally adopted (perhaps 10+ years from now), how much BTC will be on the Lightning Network?
In my mind this depends on a few things…
- How efficient can routers be in re-balancing channels on Lightning?
- How much payment activity does Lightning eat from the traditional payment system?
- How much payment activity is created on Lightning that never existed before?
- How much does Lightning security/reliability improve?
- What is the mix of public vs. private capacity?
- What is the price of Bitcoin?
Curious to know your guesses for the total capacity on Lightning in a mature state, and any other important factors that should be considered before making a guess.
I’ll guess that in a decade, there will be 100k BTC on Lightning, half in public capacity and half in private capacity.