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110 sats \ 6 replies \ @kr OP 11 Jul 2022 \ parent \ on: How much Bitcoin will migrate to Lightning? bitcoin
Good points.
My assumption here is that people will still strongly prefer to keep BTC in cold storage vs. on a Lightning node in a decade, and payment routing will become far more efficient, increasing the velocity of payments on Lightning.
Combine higher velocity w/ a higher BTC price, and those effects could counteract the need for more BTC on Lightning.
I need to read up on FediMint.
Velocity as a counterweight to liquidity demand is interesting. I'm not sure that's a stronger force than base layer fees getting really high but possibly.
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Yeah I didn’t really think about how high fees could get.
If BTC transaction fees go exponential in a decade, my guess is probably way too low.
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Most people seem to assume either one (low fees <> less lightning) or the other will happen (high fees <> more lightning).
I think if Lightning continues to improve and the use cases flourish, low fees won't be the main thing people switch to lightning for.
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True, high fees could incentivize some Bitcoiners to pay on Lightning, but Lightning use cases will go far beyond making less expensive payments.
This year was arguably one of the most successful for Lightning adoption, and blockchain fees have been minimal for many months.
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Nice ... backtest.
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Exactly. I think people will use lightning because it's user friendliness.
Imagine a future where a big percentage of the world gets paid in BTC for their work. I can see two examples:
- Freelancers getting paid via LN and using it for day to day payments. Then at the end of the month they could send a portion of it to a cold storage as savings.
- 8/5 employees receiving their monthly salary on chain and then sending part of it to LN for day to day expenses.
And on top, of course, you have to add all those new ways we are exploring right now with value4value apps and stuff.
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