I don't think I've ever talked price here before, but it's been notable to introspect on how it has felt over the last weeks as the price has crept up and up. We're now at a level that felt absurd to me 2.5 years ago, precarious even. And now it feels ho-hum. Now it's like: this has not got interesting yet.
To be explicit: I don't think we're at $63k (at time of writing) for good, by any means. I expect topsy-turviness because I've been paying attention and topsy-turviness is the norm. But it's remarkable how the psychology of expectation adapts, in how what feels right and what feels precarious map to different numbers over time.
Just curious if others have noted similar things in themselves.
1104 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 29 Feb
Yes. I find that my perspective changes as soon as there is a weekly period where the price fluctuates in a close trading range. What seemed a crazy price becomes normal. It only takes a few days. For me, I also have a strange, unexpected emotional reaction. Right around last year at this time, with bitcoin maybe in the high teens, I had my auto dca set up, but I was relaxed and enjoying my life. I wouldn't even notice the SN price ticker. Now, with the fiat price rising, I'm stressed out and in a foul mood. I can't explain why. My net worth is going up. When the price stagnates for a while I calm down, like in the past few weeks. I find stratospheric price rises more stressful than big drops for some reason.
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221 sats \ 2 replies \ @Atreus 29 Feb
“All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again.” You're doing it wrong, Siggy!
Just change the ticker to 1 sat = 1 sat, stop denominating in USD, and go back to relaxing and enjoying life. Your buying power is going to increase, but you're still bitcoin broke. Have some sats to help.
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63 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 29 Feb
I have my ticker set at sats to dollars. I like watching my daily bitcoin company Dunkin donuts coffee get cheaper.
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147 sats \ 0 replies \ @Atreus 29 Feb
Ah — another one who knows the way ☕️ ✌️
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It's been pretty rapid. I'm still fairly new, though, so maybe that's not unusual.
If the exchange rate holds, if and when the US goes through a financial crash, then I'll have to reevaluate what's going on.
Also, the various challenges I'm involved in assume 100k, so my mental valuation is somewhere in the future already.
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340 sats \ 1 reply \ @kepford 29 Feb
Have mixed feelings. I still feel that bitcoin is extremely misunderstood and ignored and therefore undervalued. But, this doesn't feel like solid footing to me. Feels like it could go parabolic either direction still.
I suspect most of this price movement is the ETF supply crunch. What is most wild to me is that halving is still to come. This whole this feels uncharted.
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Yea, we're experiencing a supply crunch before the effects the halving even begin to kick in. Things could get wild late 2024...
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I definitely feel ho-hum but I am excited by the excitement of others. In isolation, I'm more excited when we see new products and usage. On that front, there were 5-10 release announcements yesterday and Lightning Labs published their first newsletter in months so that's exciting. People's energies seem to move with the exchange rate.
I mostly get anxious when things go well. I'm never more focused than when I'm in trouble (which might be why I was so frequently in trouble as a youngster) or when there's some large gap my energy has to arc across. When things go well, I feel like I have to focus on protecting which feels lame. When things go bad, I can focus on producing which is exciting to me. It might also be genetic as I'm a Val homozygote in the COMT gene which is generally taken to mean I have more normal dopamine levels when most people are stressed out (and I feel like shit when things are tranquil).
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31 sats \ 0 replies \ @harrr 29 Feb
Bitcoin just does bitcoin things while fiat currencies keep destroying themselves. Like blackrock Larry said, there is a flight to quality, and more and more people start to realize bitcoin is the future.
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The ETF has established a new floor. I've seen that amount of BTC purchased daily is about 3.5 times that newly produced daily, which will be doubled at the halving (7x). The has set in motion a supply crunch that has potential to grow even further if active fund managers for things like pensions pour into the ETF if other equities experience trouble to keep their jobs. Ironically, I'm not sure that most of the new money entering even understands the purpose of BTC or if it evens matters.
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Every cycle further ossifies my conviction that I don’t have enough Bitcoin
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Bitcoin hasn't eaten gold yet. Once bitcoin is past gold market cap, then we can talk "Are these values realistic?" Until then, the coin is massively undervalued as an asset to hedge against government-induced fiat inflation.
Its value as a money/financial base layer/security platform/unit of account is likely to be exponentially larger than its value as a government resistant inflation hedge but this will not be priced in for decades.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 29 Feb
Bitcoin is full of surprises.
"This time it's different" feels about right.
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One of the best things about SN is people rarely talk about price. This is not a condemnation of your post as it relates more to your interpretation of current price levels than the actual price levels themselves.
I agree. I have seen a bit more exuberance lately but this is nothing at all like the insanity that the 2021 run up was.
But I also agree there will be much topsy-turviness along the way.
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I feel nothing.
I also felt nothing during 2020-2021 because for me 1 Bitcoin was constant flat 1 Bitcoin and it's still like this this time.
But the difference is that last time I knew other people were hyped and had fomo while I didn't - and this time I don't even feel like other people are hyped. Do they care? Do you care? I don't know.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @KLT 29 Feb
I’m really looking forward to nocoiners understanding btc and price will be the number one thing to reel them in. Gradually then suddenly. I can’t even wrap my head around the price at the moment as it feels like we were just hanging out around 25k yesterday!
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I've definitely shifted my assumptions about the maximum value that this can reach as I watch the waves of institutional money flow in. When nation states start really going for it, I think my assumptions will change again. Considering that really helps me envision a world where this becomes much more embedded in our financial day to day, whether it becomes a reserve currency or just a commonly used one.
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Spicy nachos.
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The problem with this recent pump is that it is driven by Wall St. Largely inflows to the ETFs. One of the primary theses of Bitcoin is that it has a fixed supply and therefore serves as a solution to fiat printing. Printing fiat will ultimately hyperinflate the currency and things, including the market, will crash. When this happens, the ETFs will get liquidated and the price of Bitcoin will crash, just not as fast and deep as everything else. Expect volatility ahead. Stay humble and sovereign. Stack.
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I think the psychology of investing in the crypto markets has changed dramatically. As has the broader environment. I keep seeing people trying to compare the current situation to previous situations and I don't know if they apply. I could be wrong, but right now it feels ho-hum to me because the price is seemingly being driven by a known increase in demand, namely the ETFs. It doesn't feel like there is a frantic energy around bitcoin in my everyday life like there was previously. If the psychology changed, It could mean we never get to those same levels of energy.
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