I have maybe a meta-answer, which is that when people do the "everything / 21m" calculation, which is technically reasonable, they're ignoring the fact that money is fundamentally a construct in service of social coordination; and that the value of an abstraction is determined, fundamentally, by human psychology.

I asked yesterday if this moment feels like anything. If you woke up tmrw and btc was at $100k, would that feel reasonable, or unreasonable? To me, it's the latter, and I don't think I'm alone. The billionaire looking to allocate capital -- and whose allocation will increasingly drive the price -- would (I propose) look at a $100k price and say: it's a bubble, that's not the right price, I'll wait for it to go down and sit on his hands. So price movement becomes tethered to psychology to a more extreme degree than is the case for other, more concrete, assets.

The result is that I don't think the psychological inputs will admit of some of these lofty valuations people propose on short timescales. Further, I think the various inputs are minimally understood. I think $1m will probably arrive; I don't think it will be before twenty years have passed and a great deal of cognitive underpinnings have become established and distributed. I'd be surprised if we saw $100k before 2026. That's about as calibrated as my feelings get on the matter.