195 sats \ 6 replies \ @tomlaies 13 Jul 2022
This is insane.
Summer last year had a few 0% MoM numbers. This means the inflation number of the next few months could be insane YoY.
I wonder what the reaction would/will be when people read double digit numbers
reply
134 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr OP 13 Jul 2022
One counter argument seems to be that oil prices are down in the last few weeks, but haven’t been fully captured by decreasing gas costs. Perhaps that will be seen in next month’s numbers.
Other than that, I don’t know how much good news there is for consumers. I keep thinking the next inflation number will be lower, and I keep getting it wrong.
reply
173 sats \ 1 reply \ @tomlaies 13 Jul 2022
That's a good point. Energy is quite volatile and has a ripple effect through the economy
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kilianbuhn 13 Jul 2022
I'd call it domino effect.
Some parts of it are also pretty irreversible.
reply
0 sats \ 2 replies \ @DemandUtopia 13 Jul 2022 freebie
We can calculate that:
1.7% per month, compounded over 12 months, would be 17%. So if the next year continues to have inflation at the rate of the past few months, we'll be north of 15% by next Spring.
179 sats \ 3 replies \ @Majjin 13 Jul 2022
I'm thinking we're going to see double digit CPI here in a few months. So the true rate of inflation will probably be like low 20s then.
reply
110 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr OP 13 Jul 2022
How much do you think CPI is being underreported by?
I’m sure there is underreporting going on, but not sure how to quantify that.
reply
169 sats \ 1 reply \ @bobby 13 Jul 2022 freebie
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Shadow stats will show you the CPI calculated using the methods from 80s and 90s
I think it’s about double what they’re reporting now
reply
110 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 13 Jul 2022
this is great, thanks!
reply
100 sats \ 0 replies \ @cryptocoin 13 Jul 2022
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1547198554405588993
https://nitter.it/Schuldensuehner/status/1547198554405588993 <-- Can be easier to read
reply
69 sats \ 3 replies \ @sancristrader 14 Jul 2022 freebie
Can someone explain to me why BTC and gold are dropping while the inflation is rising?
reply
0 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr OP 14 Jul 2022
in the short-run, i can see how bitcoin is linked to risky assets and tends to trade in tandem with tech stocks when markets fall quickly.
in the long-run, i would be surprised to see bitcoin not respond to higher inflation with a higher price tag.
don’t forget, bitcoin is 2-4x higher than it was in early 2020, prior to the money-printing that caused this inflation.
when in doubt, zoom out.
reply
169 sats \ 1 reply \ @sancristrader 14 Jul 2022
What about gold though? Gold is barely up if at all relative to 2020.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 14 Jul 2022
Bitcoin is eating into it’s use case as a store of value, and will continue to over time.
I think gold’s performance in the next decade depends on how much of its market Bitcoin can eat, and how quickly that happens.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @selfish_gene 13 Jul 2022
поехали на 10.01%
reply
8 sats \ 0 replies \ @KingZing 13 Jul 2022
and bitcoin slumps :(
reply
1 sat \ 0 replies \ @EnormousPony 13 Jul 2022
LFG TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @selfish_gene 13 Jul 2022
эй холдеры? вы где? или это скам слоган или их не существует... или они ещё не организовались...
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @jerry 14 Jul 2022 freebie
Probably nothing.
"we now understand better how little we understand about inflation" ~ Joker Powell