97 sats \ 4 replies \ @elvismercury OP 3 Mar \ on: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024 2030 2040 (Top Experts) bitcoin
Ha! I found the simulation. Or rather, simulations (plural). The one I had in mind was the Schroedinger one. Go nuts, @Undisciplined.
I've been playing around with it a bit. There will definitely be a forth coming post based on my trials.
It's helping me clarify what it would mean to act as though we're correct, which I brought up vaguely in one of our chats.
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Excellent -- I really wanted you to expand on that.
And perhaps you can also explain the methodology of the Schroedinger simulation -- the larger idea behind it is easy to understand ("what portion of the art market is serving as a store of value, how much of that do you think btc will usurp, on what timescale?") but the way he's' doing expected values makes no sense to me at all.
I would just map each of those questions as a distribution (you could start w/ gaussian, for simplicity) with central tendency that the user specifies, and now you have a distribution of outcomes per asset class, that you can add together. Except he's doing something other than that, which I don't get.
Anyway, look fwd to the post!
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I need to do a more thorough read of the methodology, especially if there's an audience wanting some of it clarified.
Something that stood out to me as odd, is that instead of talking about "how much of that do you think btc will usurp" he's talking about the probability of usurping the entire thing. I'm assuming those are basically the same, but that depends on how he's dong expected values.
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Oh, I will (probably literally).
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