Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024 2030 2040 (Top Experts) \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024 2030 2040 (Top Experts)www.swanbitcoin.com/bitcoin-price-prediction/

1692 sats \ 18 comments \ @elvismercury 3 Mar bitcoin

There's been a lot of price discussion lately, so figured I'd lean into it.

@siggy47 kicked it off w/ a rambling podcast (that is nonetheless quite good) from some finance guy.
@Undisciplined took another crack at it yesterday.
We riffed a bit more in the comments of my post.
@siggy47 just posted this risk-reward analysis a bit ago.

There's also a simulation that was on GitHub that I was trying to unearth. It was pretty cool -- you could drag knobs to set different assumption values (e.g., how much of the art market do you think it will capture?) to come up with different estimates. If anyone knows what I'm talking about (I thought it was from a guy at Swan?) please post in comments.

Anyway, the article I linked is a giant compendium of these things, so you can guzzle the sweet sweet hopium.

(Meta: this would be one of those times where some kind of aggregate structure would be nice, since we're all talking about the same thing. Hard to know how exactly to realize it, though.)

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97 sats \ 4 replies \ @elvismercury OP 3 Mar

Ha! I found the simulation. Or rather, simulations (plural). The one I had in mind was the Schroedinger one. Go nuts, @Undisciplined.

218 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 4 Mar

I've been playing around with it a bit. There will definitely be a forth coming post based on my trials.

It's helping me clarify what it would mean to act as though we're correct, which I brought up vaguely in one of our chats.

30 sats \ 1 reply \ @elvismercury OP 4 Mar

Excellent -- I really wanted you to expand on that.

And perhaps you can also explain the methodology of the Schroedinger simulation -- the larger idea behind it is easy to understand ("what portion of the art market is serving as a store of value, how much of that do you think btc will usurp, on what timescale?") but the way he's' doing expected values makes no sense to me at all.

I would just map each of those questions as a distribution (you could start w/ gaussian, for simplicity) with central tendency that the user specifies, and now you have a distribution of outcomes per asset class, that you can add together. Except he's doing something other than that, which I don't get.

Anyway, look fwd to the post!

27 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 4 Mar

I need to do a more thorough read of the methodology, especially if there's an audience wanting some of it clarified.

Something that stood out to me as odd, is that instead of talking about "how much of that do you think btc will usurp" he's talking about the probability of usurping the entire thing. I'm assuming those are basically the same, but that depends on how he's dong expected values.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 3 Mar

Oh, I will (probably literally).

48 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 3 Mar

I'm glad you at least put a bunch of this together here. I was thinking about how unfortunate it is that our conversations over the past week have just spilled across a bunch of posts, which makes it pretty difficult to follow for anyone else.

I hope someone can find the simulation you mentioned. I could easily see myself getting addicted to that.

51 sats \ 1 reply \ @elvismercury OP 3 Mar freebie

You were the reason I went looking for it -- I figured it would be like crack for you. I'm sort of baffled that I can't find it, makes me wonder if they pulled it for some reason?