216 sats \ 2 replies \ @davidw 9 Mar \ parent \ on: Incentives and coordination to solve hard problems mostly_harmless
Economies of scale has been a way to fast-forward efficiency and the side effect has been some of these themes & symptoms.
More money = more firepower = more economies of scale = more marketing = more customers = more money.
In the future, it may actually be a drag having all of that capital overhead, when people in their teenage basements and with a creative mind can will any one of their 1,000+ creations into existence.
I’m specifically wondering whether energy fusion (or abundance), nanotech, AI, open source and hard money (bitcoin) combined will break down the economies of scale in products & business, that we have witnessed for the past 100 years.
Not sure how true it is but I heard a report last week that drones costing several thousand dollars each were overwhelming military equipment worth tens of millions. That’s just one anecdote but I think it represents a shift in balance. Same for ‘journalism’ and individual researchers / writers / analysts punching above their weight and out-competing these big newsrooms. But I digress.
I wonder if the wheels are already in motion to less suppressed technology. If so, just think what that unleashes.
I’m specifically wondering whether fusion, nanotech, AI, open source and hard money (bitcoin) combined will break down the economies of scale in products & business, that we have witnessed for the past 100 years.
That's a fascinating thing to think about -- the more you can pull disparate things into one single brain, s.t. the coordination cost is basically zero, the more advantage you have. LLMs do this more than anything has in my lifetime, so I think the cocktail you describe could be a plausible erosion -- at least temporarily -- roll back the transaction cost advantages of the firm, at least for a while.
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Yes, civilisation has peaks and troughs, ebbs and flows of increasing centralisation vs decentralisation. So it certainly won’t be forever.
But it might be a pretty cool time to be a small vendor or small business owner again. At least that’s my hope.
Super excited to see some of these ridiculous and groundbreaking inventions go mainstream. Not just turning something analogue digital (which is basically the last 30 years). Hoprfully real sci-fi-looking progress.
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