25 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 11 Mar \ on: Tough Questions for Libertarians 1/15 libertarian
Great idea for a post series. I wonder if the influencers on each issue play a role. Without a sense of urgency their books and videos are less dramatic and would be less popular. Perhaps they shorten the timelines of legitimate trends that would unfold more gradually-decades rather than years.
There's some amount of adverse selection going on for sure. Hysterics get more attention than the calm and measured.
In both of these cases, though, I think the issue was that people thought they had a solid understanding of the situation and these predictions seemed straightforward. Also in both cases, we're talking about extremely complex systems and it's just not possible to account for every relevant factor.