I was going to do a post on CRE today myself but I will share the data I have in the comments of this post instead. A few weeks ago @Undisciplined and I were discussing CRE which sent me on a fact finding mission as I am somewhat out of the loop these days being a couple years out of my business now and not really keeping up with my former circle other than standard pleasantries.

The following is data on office vacancy rates in the city of Toronto comparing March 2024 to March 2023, March 2020 (pre pandemic effect) and 20y years ago March 2004. As you can see vacancy rates are drastically higher compared to March 2020 and still increasing, as 2024 number is higher than 2023. Interestingly enough they are not that much higher than 20 years ago, which is notable but not really relevant considering almost no property is going to have debt issued for it at a 2004 valuation.

Please note this is for office only. From what I have been told by contact at CBRE more broadly across Canada office and retail (unless it is anchor tenant) have been struggling while industrial, data centres and other specialty (think medical, research, lab, cold storage etc) have been doing well.